Here come the Part-II post I teased you about, few days ago. If you haven’t checked out Part-I of this self analysis trilogy, I provided a quick link for you here. Very often, when laying out my personal box office predictions for certain films I either ended up embarrassing myself a lot by utterly underestimating the film altogether or I had been little too much optimistic about certain film’s performance. It thus resulted in the following compilation of some of the most absurd predictions during the course of the year 2019. Without further ado, let’s do some self-imposed self-analysis.
Happy Death Day 2U: I very much liked the original ‘Happy Death Day’. If statistics were to be held accountable then it seems audience liked that film a lot as well, in fact a vast majority of them did. So I kinda hoping for a repeat of original film’s box office run for this charming sequel as well. But combined might of the marketplace and audiences did allowed for that to happen.
Predicted Figures: NA-$40m; Overseas-$80m; Global-$120m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$28m; Overseas-$37m; Global-$65m.
Aladdin: I didn’t predicted any sort doomsday scenario for this film since I was one of those few people who firmly believed this film will make a splash at the box office. But the negative press attention somehow ended up clouding my own optimism too thus I ended up predicting a far lower final total for this fun-filled film. The billion dollar milestone it achieved served both as a music to my ears as well as a slap on my face.
Predicted Figures: NA-$265m; Overseas-$475m; Global-$740m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$356m; Overseas-$695m; Global-$1.051b.
Godzilla: King of Monsters: I liked the way this ‘cinematic universe’ was shaping up. The estimates I drew out for this film in particular was the sheer reflection of the excitement I had over the possibility of seeing more from this universe. It seems like my estimates were way higher than the actual numbers which also brought down the excitement many folds since the possibility of seeing more now looks very slim.
Predicted Figures: NA-$140m; Overseas-$360m; Global-$500m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$110m; Overseas-$276m; Global-$386m.
Dark Phoenix: I did wanted more out of X-Men as a franchise but I didn’t even remotely thrilled with this particular project from the very beginning. My predictions, as it happened, ended up being way too high for this film to get there. Further, it wrapped up it’s theatrical run as the lowest grossing X-Men movie ever. In the hindsight, the bar I had set for this film was not too big for it to climb considering the legacy of this legendary franchise to which it belongs.
Predicted Figures: NA-$100m; Overseas-$320m; Global-$420m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$66m; Overseas-$186m; Global-$252m.
Dora And The Lost City of Gold: One of the most under-rated as well as under-appreciated film of the year. A charming film and my box office estimates were totally let down by the moviegoing populace who mistakenly judged this whole thing just by that one ‘uninspiring’ trailer. Yes, marketing chewed on this film’s ultimate potential as well.
Predicted Figures: NA-$60m+; Overseas-$135m+; Global-$200m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$61m; Overseas-$60m; Global-$121m.
The Kitchen: A star-studded, female-centric movie garnered nobody’s attention flopping hard at the box office, since we live and breathe in an era where ‘star power’ was not even a thing. My predictions despite being a low-mark for a counter programmer now appear as a ‘huge bounty’ if when looking it at the state of this film.
Predicted Figures: NA-$25m; Overseas-$10m; Global-$35m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$12m; Overseas-$4m; Global-$16m.
Scary Stories To Tell In The Dark: It should have seen this one coming. A horror movie coming out of season ‘ripe enough’ for horror films which led me to underestimate the complete potential of this movie. Despite lack of star-power (as if it was thing, right?) and unpopular IP, it did considerably well at the box office against the reported $25m budget. Bring out a round of applause, please.
Predicted Figures: NA-$25m; Overseas-$15m; Global-$40m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$69m; Overseas-$37m; Global-$106m.
Downton Abbey: Another big round of applause for this one too. It totally deserves it. A transition from TV to big screen was getting harder and harder since it was happening the other way around with the predominant rise of streaming services. To achieve what it had achieved would takes a lot of guts, a very loyal fan-base and above all a heart-winning movie which live up to the expectations of it’s eager fans. The box office performance way higher than my personal estimates stands as a proof of it’s splendid accomplishment.
Predicted Figures: NA-$70m; Overseas-$60m; Global-$130m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$97m; Overseas-$95m; Global-$192m.
Ad Astra: Anybody could have guessed what will happen now-a-days if you want to make a film by combining the star-power and a concept but with the sheer lack of any recognizable IP or a popular franchise involvement. Nine of ten times your film was potential doomed from the start. It still performed little bit better than I expected but still it can’t be able to prevent the disaster as it still finish as a huge financial disappointment at the box office.
Predicted Figures: NA-$50m; Overseas-$40m; Global-$90m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$50m; Overseas-$83m; Global-$133m.
Joker: Sometimes you sounds very optimistic about something. Then that particular thing happens in such way that it makes you feels like as if you were not even remotely optimistic about that thing at all. That very thing happened with Aladdin. That was also what exactly happened with Joker as well. The first ever billion dollar grossing R-rated film. Take a bow.
Predicted Figures: NA-$250m+; Overseas-$350m+; Global-$600m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$335m; Overseas-$739m; Global-$1.073b.
Charlie’s Angels: Much like a movie can’t been saved with the lone strength of star-power, similarly decline of a franchise or IP could not be averted even with the involvement of star studded cast and director particularly when the movie lack ‘quality’ as it fans came to expect. I did shot past the estimates I drew out for this franchise ‘reboot’, but still it was not enough to revive this fallen (if not forgotten) franchise.
Predicted Figures: NA-$20m; Overseas-$25m; Global-$45m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$18m; Overseas-$55m; Global-$73m.
Knives Out: Well, I keep telling nine out of ten times a film was potentially doomed from the start even with the involvement of star-studded cast, a marquee film-director but without a popular IP/franchise attached to it. In the contrary, there always will be an exception for that rule. Knives Out as it happened was that lone exception as it went to become one of the most profitable film of the year 2019 making my own estimates dwarf in comparison against it’s phenomenal final total.
Predicted Figures: NA-$100m; Overseas-$110m; Global-$210m.
Actual Numbers: NA-$165m; Overseas-$144m; Global-$309m.
That’s it for today, folks. Hope you all enjoyed reading my Part-II of this planned trilogy of posts. I will soon post the final part of this self-analysis trilogy, enlisting those ‘accurate’ predictions very soon. Please keep an eye out for that one and I sincerely thank you all for your continued support. Until next time.
Box Office Foresight 