End is near. Not for any of those franchise entries we are going to talk a lot about. But for this ongoing six-part post which was now coming to an end and I thanks everyone for being with me so far, till the end. It’s wrap up time, as we are now going to see the final batch of franchise movies releasing this year and debate on how well these movies will perform at the box office. Here we are about to see 4 such movies in this post. (Yes, Indeed I left out Daddy’s Home sequel, which was not going to be included in the discussion.) Let’s have some fun!
At first, I try to crack this complex puzzle. No matter how well this movie performs financially, I assume many were going to claim this as ‘failure’ or label this as a ‘doomed from start’, ‘disappointment‘, ‘franchise without hope’ etc., etc. Because this one had a lot riding on its success as a film, and also have so much to do with meeting the people’s expectations. By success, I only meant that it had to succeed ‘artistically’ rather than succeeding or by very least performing reasonably well at the box office. As far as the current tracking and predictions goes, it was expected to gross anywhere between $750m-$950m. For the sake of this movie, I am not even going to talk about $1 billion milestone at all. Not because I simply believe that it doesn’t get there, only because the real problem ‘partially lies there’. Not just for this particular movie, this was the case for almost all the mega-event movies these days. (Let’s have these pesky discussion over at my upcoming spinoff post, I teased you earlier about.)
Warner Bros./DCEU’s Justice League, which opens on November 17, 2017 will try hard on its own to prove many people wrong, in so many fronts. But if you ask me, honestly I merely wants an entertaining superhero team-up movie sans any universe building McGuffins, Easter eggs, Post-credit sequences, future film’s character tease(s) etc.,. Years ago, I fell in love with ‘The Avengers’ just like that sans all those. At box office, I am expecting this movie to most likely perform as a sequel to the WB/DCEU’s Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice. So a likely drop from the global box office performance of BvS was reasonable and also very much acceptable. I predict an opening over/under $120m in North America, with a slightly better theatrical run with 2.6x of weekend total, which will put JL‘s final total at halfway decent $310m+ range. Internationally though it will sure collect somewhere around $425m-$475m range, again with drop of around 14-22% from BvS overseas business. In total, it will do box office business worth around $735m-$785m globally.
As you can see, my prediction doesn’t put it anywhere near that magical mark. Yet I so far raised my voice in support of this movie despite being deeply let down by the quality of BvS, Suicide Squad and MoS instead got surprised by the box office performance(s) of those same bunch of movies. This time though I am okay with it, if Justice League manage to surprises me otherwise. Justice League boasts an ensemble cast of Ben Affleck, Henry Cavill, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, Ezra Miller, Ray Fisher, Amy Adams, J. K. Simmons, Amber Heard, William Dafoe, Jeremy Irons, Connie Nielsen, Diane Lane, Billy Crudup, Ciaran Hinds with Zack Snyder returning as Director.
Finally. I had been waiting all the year to get my hands on this one. It was none other than our very own, much beloved, mythology episode-cum-tentpole film/holiday event provided courtesy of Walt Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It will mark it’s glorious arrival to the movie theaters around the world on December 15, 2017. From there on it’s gonna rule the entire movie-going marketplace for nearly a month. There is no stopping this one for sure. Couple of years ago, I was sweating over the idea and possibility of how much bigger it’s very own prequel episode gonna be, like whether it can be able to cross $300m(domestic) on the opening weekend itself or it can be able to out gross Avatar’s $2.7b+ worldwide total after it’s entire run. Later that following year I began blogging about such box office predictions, as you all very much aware of that now.
This time was a charm though since I am also the one (among some million others) who was making my very own box office projections, officially. For Star Wars: TLJ, I am seeing an opening in the range of $225m-$235m from North America theatres alone. With a little conservative final multiplier of 3.4x, then we will be possible looking at yet another potential ‘Avatar‘ toppling total of around $760m-$800m range. But in global scale though the crown was still going to be retained by ‘Avatar‘. I didn’t see that happening because even if things go as well as we expected still it can only approach the $2 billion mark, let alone cross it (and there is no shame in that). My predictions for the international markets were now at $1.02b-$1.05b range (Also of note that China will yet again likely deliver a mere $100m-$140m contribution). So I guess Star War Episode VIII was estimated to collect around $1.78b-$1.85b from all over the world.
If it soars any higher then all I gotta say was that, it happened once a couple of Christmas ago, so no denying the possibility that it won’t happen again and eventually override our wildest expectations. Stars Wars: The Last Jedi’s cast includes names such as Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, Adam Driver, Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Andy Serkis, Lupita Nyong’o, Domhnall Gleeson, Anthony Daniels, Gwendoline Christie, Kelly Marie Tran, Laura Dern and Benicio del Toro, with Rian Johnson attached as Writer/Director.
Updated on November 23, 2017:
Another year. Another Christmas. Yet another yesteryear franchise being rebooted in hope, the ‘nostalgia’ will help drive box office potential. Sony/Columbia’s Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle which opens on December 20, 2017 stars Dwayne Johnson, Jack Black, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Nick Jonas, Bobby Cannavale and many others. Though it may not even measure up to ‘Star Wars‘ level nostalgia, yet it was popular enough (even in my own country). Jumanji (1995) remains one of those most memorable movie I watched when I was a kid, since we can easily relate/attach ourselves to any ‘board/dice’ games at those time. Only this time, Sony was aiming to hook the audience with (currently most popular) video-game console based fantasy, thus by trading places with board & dices. Let see how well it fares as a narrative hook. Yet the board & dices narrative was still kinda cool, since the plot itself was driven by the outcome of the every turn a player commit towards the said board and dice game in thos e earlier version(s) of the movie. (Even it’s direct sequel Sony’s Zathura stuck to same idea as well.)
Without further ado, let go check out how well it’s gonna fare at box office this Christmas. SW: The Last Jedi will sure pose a serious threat, of course. Even if it succumbs to the Star Wars wrath in North America, I believe it might get some warranted attention at some/handful of overseas markets where Star Wars doesn’t click (say, China). With a reliable star Dwayne Johnson present
with joystick ready in hand….on board, they might be able to pull this one off to safety, with the overseas box office might. Also I am setting aside the ‘nostalgia factor‘ off the table, since it might be either boon or bane. We can find that out only when it happens and how big impact it made. So, the best case scenario opening for NA will be around $27m three-day and $40m-$45m five-day total (opens on Wednesday). With some decent if not great legs, then it might wind up with 2.8x final multiplier for halfway-decent $110m-$130m total. Overseas as I said will presumably pull double the business it eventually does in NA. So the final overseas total of around $250m+ range sounds attainable. Hopefully if it holds better somewhere even if it loses some grip elsewhere, then we can hope it will drive towards an ‘okay‘ $380m+ global gross.
Also of note, it all rest on the fact just how much folks spent on this picture. Such projected result was good against a $75m-$80m million budgeted movie, even to an extent for $100m budget. In case of $120m+ money spender then we have to reconsider everything I had just said accordingly.
Pitch Perfect was surprise smash hit back in 2012, when Universal was then having a good enough year at the box office. It had surprisingly good drama in addition to good music despite having a generic story, clicked with the audience and earned $115m+ worldwide on $15m budget. Then came the sequel (as you knew was the latest Hollywood’s obsession) in 2015, right when Universal was having a record breaking year at the box office. Despite it carried somewhat less emotional/dramatic depth, yet it kept tabs on the musical/comedic parts in line with the original. I can even argue that, actually more people came to theaters rather than the fact that people ended up liking it even more than the original. As a result, it went on to gross around $285m+ globally ($29m budget).
You can’t imagine a situation where threequel was not getting made for Pitch Perfect series since it was now became a ‘norm’ in the movie landscape. That is, making sequels. Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3, which opens on December 22, 2017 (only couple of days behind Jumanji reboot but was targeting an entirely different audience demo. So, no need for panic there.) will feature Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Hailee Steinfeld, Brittany Snow, Anna Camp, Alexis Knapp, Hana Mae Lee, Ester Dean, Chrissie Fit, Kelley Jakle, Shelley Regner, Andy Allo, Guy Burnet, Ruby Rose, Matt Lanter, John Michael Higgins and Elizabeth Bank. Here were are, to discuss a potential $500m+ earner on tad expensive $60m budgeted threequel (for a musical/comedy, I mean).
I was kidding. So back again to the actual topic. Since the budget was not yet revealed by Universal, let’s hope it might cost only around $35m-$40m. To justify it’s budget, you might argue that it has to earn at least $350m+ to be considered a success. But that’s not the case here. Since, if they managed to pitch us much better/well received closing chapter, even though if it performs more in line with PP2 at box office, it still can be counted as ‘success’ nevertheless. I guess it might take a small drop from the predecessor’s box office (despite nailing the quality, I assume) as it will likely to collect around $120m-$130m in North America, via decent $35m-$40m opening and holiday legs. Overseas total might make a jump, so I am guessing it will bring in around $120m, to deliver a respectable $260m-$270m global revenue. (With Star Wars around, it might be difficult to predict the exact outcome of such counter programmers, since SW: The Last Jedi can attract all demos.)
That’s all folks. Hoping to see you soon with the long delayed spin-off post , sooner than later. I had to do this spinoff sooner than later, otherwise I might start to sound so out of place. Seen you all soon. Been a long journey. Thanks very much for hanging around.
Check out my earlier posts provided with links below:
Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.