Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 6.

                  End is near. Not for any of those franchise entries we are going to talk a lot about. But for this ongoing six-part post which was now coming to an end and I thanks everyone for being with me so far, till the end. It’s wrap up time, as we are now going to see the final batch of franchise movies releasing this year and debate on how well these movies will perform at the box office. Here we are about to see 4 such movies in this post. (Yes, Indeed I left out Daddy’s Home sequel, which was not going to be included in the discussion.) Let’s have some fun!

               At first, I try to crack this complex puzzle. No matter how well this movie performs financially, I assume many were going to claim this as ‘failure’ or label this as a ‘doomed from start’, ‘disappointment‘, ‘franchise without hope’ etc., etc. Because this one had a lot riding on its success as a film, and also have so much to do with meeting the people’s expectations. By success, I only meant that it had to succeed ‘artistically’ rather than succeeding or by very least performing reasonably well at the box office. As far as the current tracking and predictions goes, it was expected to gross anywhere between $750m-$950m. For the sake of this movie, I am not even going to talk about $1 billion milestone at all. Not because I simply believe that it doesn’t get there, only because the real problem ‘partially lies there’. Not just for this particular movie, this was the case for almost all the mega-event movies these days. (Let’s have these pesky discussion over at my upcoming spinoff post, I teased you earlier about.)

               Warner Bros./DCEU’s Justice League, which opens on November 17, 2017 will try hard on its own to prove many people wrong, in so many fronts. But if you ask me, honestly I merely wants an entertaining superhero team-up movie sans any universe building McGuffins, Easter eggs, Post-credit sequences, future film’s character tease(s) etc.,. Years ago, I fell in love with ‘The Avengers’ just like that sans all those. At box office, I am expecting this movie to most likely perform as a sequel to the WB/DCEU’s Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice. So a likely drop from the global box office performance of BvS was reasonable and also very much acceptable. I predict an opening over/under $120m in North America, with a slightly better theatrical run with 2.6x of weekend total, which will put JL‘s final total at halfway decent $310m+ range. Internationally though it will sure collect somewhere around $425m-$475m range, again with drop of around 14-22% from BvS overseas business. In total, it will do box office business worth around $735m-$785m globally.

             As you can see, my prediction doesn’t put it anywhere near that magical mark. Yet I so far raised my voice in support of this movie despite being deeply let down by the quality of BvS, Suicide Squad and MoS  instead got surprised by the box office performance(s) of those same bunch of movies. This time though I am okay with it, if Justice League manage to surprises me otherwise. Justice League boasts an ensemble cast of Ben Affleck, Henry Cavill, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, Ezra Miller, Ray Fisher, Amy Adams, J. K. Simmons, Amber Heard, William Dafoe, Jeremy Irons, Connie Nielsen, Diane Lane, Billy Crudup, Ciaran Hinds with Zack Snyder returning as Director.

                  Finally. I had been waiting all the year to get my hands on this one. It was none other than our very own, much beloved, mythology episode-cum-tentpole film/holiday event provided courtesy of Walt Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It will mark it’s glorious arrival to the movie theaters around the world on December 15, 2017. From there on it’s gonna rule the entire movie-going marketplace for nearly a month. There is no stopping this one for sure. Couple of years ago, I was sweating over the idea and possibility of how much bigger it’s very own prequel episode gonna be, like whether it can be able to cross $300m(domestic) on the opening weekend itself or it can be able to out gross Avatar’s $2.7b+ worldwide total after it’s entire run. Later that following year I began blogging about such box office predictions, as you all very much aware of that now.

                  This time was a charm though since I am also the one (among some million others) who was making my very own box office projections, officially. For Star Wars: TLJ, I am seeing an opening in the range of $225m-$235m from North America theatres alone. With a little conservative final multiplier of 3.4x, then we will be possible looking at yet another potential ‘Avatar‘ toppling total of around $760m-$800m range. But in global scale though the crown was still going to be retained by ‘Avatar‘. I didn’t see that happening because even if things go as well as we expected still it can only approach the $2 billion mark, let alone cross it (and there is no shame in that). My predictions for the international markets were now at $1.02b-$1.05b range (Also of note that China will yet again likely deliver a mere $100m-$140m contribution). So I guess Star War Episode VIII was estimated to collect around $1.78b-$1.85b from all over the world.

               If it soars any higher then all I gotta say was that, it happened once a couple of Christmas ago, so no denying the possibility that it won’t happen again and eventually override our wildest expectations. Stars Wars: The Last Jedi’s cast includes names such as Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, Adam Driver, Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Andy Serkis, Lupita Nyong’o, Domhnall Gleeson, Anthony Daniels, Gwendoline Christie, Kelly Marie Tran, Laura Dern and Benicio del Toro, with Rian Johnson attached as Writer/Director.

Updated on November 23, 2017:

                Another year. Another Christmas. Yet another yesteryear franchise being rebooted in hope, the ‘nostalgia’ will help drive box office potential. Sony/Columbia’s Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle which opens on December 20, 2017 stars Dwayne Johnson, Jack Black, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Nick Jonas, Bobby Cannavale and many others. Though it may not even measure up to ‘Star Wars‘ level nostalgia, yet it was popular enough (even in my own country). Jumanji (1995) remains one of those most memorable movie I watched when I was a kid, since we can easily relate/attach ourselves to any ‘board/dice’ games at those time. Only this time, Sony was aiming to hook the audience with (currently most popular) video-game console based fantasy, thus by trading places with board & dices. Let see how well it fares as a narrative hook. Yet the board & dices narrative was still kinda cool, since the plot itself was driven by the outcome of the every turn a player commit towards the said board and dice game in thos e earlier version(s) of the movie. (Even it’s direct sequel Sony’s Zathura stuck to same idea as well.)

                Without further ado, let go check out how well it’s gonna fare at box office this Christmas. SW: The Last Jedi will sure pose a serious threat, of course. Even if it succumbs to the Star Wars wrath in North America, I believe it might get some warranted attention at some/handful of overseas markets where Star Wars doesn’t click (say, China). With a reliable star Dwayne Johnson present with joystick ready in hand….on board, they might be able to pull this one off to safety, with the overseas box office might. Also I am setting aside the ‘nostalgia factor‘ off the table, since it might be either boon or bane. We can find that out only when it happens and how big impact it made. So, the best case scenario opening for NA will be around $27m three-day and $40m-$45m five-day total (opens on Wednesday). With some decent if not great legs, then it might wind up with 2.8x final multiplier for halfway-decent $110m-$130m total. Overseas as I said will presumably pull double the business it eventually does in NA. So the final overseas total of around $250m+ range sounds attainable. Hopefully if it holds better somewhere even if it loses some grip elsewhere, then we can hope it will drive towards an ‘okay$380m+ global gross.

                 Also of note, it all rest on the fact just how much folks spent on this picture. Such projected result was good against a $75m-$80m million budgeted movie, even to an extent for $100m budget. In case of $120m+ money spender then we have to reconsider everything I had just said accordingly.

               Pitch Perfect was surprise smash hit back in 2012, when Universal was then having a good enough year at the box office. It had surprisingly good drama in addition to good music despite having a generic story, clicked with the audience and earned $115m+ worldwide on $15m budget. Then came the sequel (as you knew was the latest Hollywood’s obsession) in 2015, right when Universal was having a record breaking year at the box office. Despite it carried somewhat less emotional/dramatic depth, yet it kept tabs on the musical/comedic parts in line with the original. I can even argue that, actually more people came to theaters rather than the fact that people ended up liking it even more than the original. As a result, it went on to gross around $285m+ globally ($29m budget).

            You can’t imagine a situation where threequel was not getting made for Pitch Perfect series since it was now became a ‘norm’ in the movie landscape. That is, making sequels.  Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3, which opens on December 22, 2017 (only couple of days behind Jumanji reboot but was targeting an entirely different audience demo. So, no need for panic there.) will feature Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Hailee Steinfeld, Brittany Snow, Anna Camp, Alexis Knapp, Hana Mae Lee, Ester Dean, Chrissie Fit, Kelley Jakle, Shelley Regner, Andy Allo, Guy Burnet, Ruby Rose, Matt Lanter, John Michael Higgins and Elizabeth Bank. Here were are, to discuss a potential $500m+ earner on tad expensive $60m budgeted threequel (for a musical/comedy, I mean).

               I was kidding. So back again to the actual topic. Since the budget was not yet revealed by Universal, let’s hope it might cost only around $35m-$40m. To justify it’s budget, you might argue that it has to earn at least $350m+ to be considered a success. But that’s not the case here. Since, if they managed to pitch us much better/well received  closing chapter, even though if it performs more in line with PP2 at box office, it still can be counted as ‘success’ nevertheless. I guess it might take a small drop from the predecessor’s box office (despite nailing the quality, I assume) as it will likely to collect around $120m-$130m in North America, via decent $35m-$40m opening and holiday legs. Overseas total might make a jump, so I am guessing it will bring in around $120m, to deliver a respectable $260m-$270m global revenue. (With Star Wars around, it might be difficult to predict the exact outcome of such counter programmers, since SW: The Last Jedi can attract all demos.)

               That’s all folks. Hoping to see you soon with the long delayed spin-off post , sooner than later. I had to do this spinoff sooner than later, otherwise I might start to sound so out of place. Seen you all soon. Been a long journey. Thanks very much for hanging around.

Check out my earlier posts provided with links below:


Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.


Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 5.

                  First I had to wrap up this one quickly, before I even start working on that ‘spin-off’ post I had teased you about, in the earlier post. So here we are going to see the possible outcome of the franchise movies hitting the theatres this fall at the box office. (As far me it was an entirely different season over here in the southern hemisphere and that’s not even relevant to this post.) We have ‘five such movies over the table, ready for study and dissection. So roll up the sleeves and  let’s begin.

                  Rolled into theatres yesterday 20th Century Fox’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the sequel to 2015 sleeper hit, will be hoping and looking to repeat the feat the original had quietly managed a couple of years ago. Still it was going to be hard, since the original which opened during February that year opened with modest $36m+ ($41m+ long weekend), but somehow managed to get around $128m in US, and more so it performed exceeding better overseas as it collected $286m+. It collected $414m+ globally, which was over 5x of its $80m budget sans marketing cost. To note the R-rated movies had been witnessing an upward trend for the past couple of years, it might play into it’s advantage as well. It opened yesterday (September 22, 2017) in US and also been rolled out into some foreign territories as well. With few new addition of marquee stars, we will see how much it will improvise over the original. Still I am playing a ‘realist’ here, so I expect this movie to open with $40m+ over the weekend in US. I also assume it will be more frontloaded in nature as it will likely wrap up it’s run with around $115m in NA. Also in the hindsight, looks like there might be a chance for this sequel to top original in the overseas run at very least, still I guess it might fall short of that too. I am expecting the numbers somewhere around $270m range. Worldwide, it will gross somewhere between $365m-$390m. Look, if you had asked for my optimistic predictions then I would have went on to declare that it will be around $480m-$510m. Still I prefer to play this one safe, particularly during this time of the year. More so, if the budget will be as modest as it’s original, it didn’t have to outperform it’s original to be  considered a success. Simply enough, it only had to match it with a similar run at the box office. It boast a star studded line up which includes Colin Firth, Taron Egerton, Pedro Pascal, Mark Strong, Elton John, with Channing Tatum, Jeff Bridges, Halle Berry, Julianne Moore among others.

                  Opening alongside Kingsman TGC,  was an animated counter-programmer WB’s Lego Ninjago. Before the start of this year, the expectations for this movie were notch higher than it were in the recent weeks, since to many of our surprise Lego Batman Movie considerably underperformed. People were expecting LBM movie to out-do the original, yet it only collected $310m+ worldwide. Let me get clear about one thing here. Just because some movie performs way below people’s expectation doesn’t mean that it was a failure. And I am not the one who wish for this particular movie or be it any movie(s) to fail at the BO, I was simply laying down my guess. Lego Movie did very well; Lego Batman Movie did okay.  So if I had to put some numbers on the board for the third entry of this franchise, first of all I must have to lower my expectations a ‘little bit’. Who knows, if people love what they see and if the interest grows, then without doubt that it might even perform way above what I have guesses. As far as my prediction goes, I now stands at $45m+ opening with a similar run like it’s predecessor from thereon will land this movie in a ‘okay but not terrible’ range of $140m-$150m in NA region. Overseas will bring somewhere around $140m-$160m. So barring any surprises, it will pick up little more than $300m globally. Lending their voice to LNM were Dave Franco, Justin Theroux, Fred Armisen, Abbi Jacobson, Olivia Munn, Kumail Nanjiani, Micheal Pena, Zach Woods and Jackie Chan among others.

                   As we all know, Hollywood obsession with the franchise movies had been growing exponentially in recent years. As a result, we have here a continuation of once popular cult franchise (which was until an year ago, considered by many that it was done for good) was getting yet another installment this fall. Lionsgate’s Jigsaw, eighth installment in Saw franchise,  will be keeping some hostages at the movie theatres for a while, after it opens on October 27 and the cast that includes Matt Passmore, Callum Keith Rennie, Cle Bennet among others. The budgets for all  the franchise entries were maintained in the range of $1.2m-$11m dollar throughout, with the exception of SAW 3D (7th installment) which carried the price tag of $17m. Against the cumulative budget of $64m and it so far managed to pull a mighty $873m+ from box office collectively. So, will it cross $1billion milestone? It has to. If not, this franchise at whole will be ridiculed as failure and declared as ‘monumental’ failure. The tool to detect a box office failure had got this much simpler, wow! Okay, coming to the declaration of it’s projected performance at the BO, Jigsaw will make around $55m from NA courtesy of $20m+ range opening. Assuming a 44-55 NA vs. overseas split, it will kidnap around $70m from theatrical collections. If it performs as close to I projected then it will have clear shot at $1bn+ cumulative milestone with $125m+ worldwide, and so can be able to save the whole franchise from the embarrassment.

                   So before we get into yet another ‘projected disappointment’, at first let’s wrap up a small thing playing against that foresaid big ‘doomed’ thing. A sequel to the blown out success from the last year ‘Bad Moms’, will be popping some party poppers this November. Yeah, Christmas had arrived early for this bunch, since the proper Christmas weekend/month was now under the jurisdiction of Jedi and Sith (it had been the case for past two years). The original collected around $180m+ worldwide against $20m budget, an whooping 9x final multiplier. To expect the sequel to perform in line with the original will be ridiculous, as well as it was all that depends on the budget of the sequel. If the had sequel cost as much as the original, then it got itself in a good spot to begin with. Setting the budget cost aside, I now presume that it will open in the $25-30m range and will collect around $80m+ from NA. Overseas run will probably be in the same range as NA, as it was likely to collect a similar $80m+ from elsewhere, for global total of around $160m. STX Entertainment’s A Bad Moms Christmas was about to kick start their celebration on November 3, and the people being exclusively invited to the party were Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Kathryn Hahn, Jay Hernandez, Cheryl Hines, Peter Gallagher, Christine Baranski and Susan Sarandon.

Updated on November 3, 2017.

                   I was joking when I said earlier that the movie we were about to see will be yet ‘another projected disappointment’. Since somehow we found a way to stamp some movies, even though they had done so very well at box office but yet began branding them as ‘failure’. Age of Ultron, Dawn of Justice, Rogue One comes to my mind.  Just because if we set the bar so high for a movie to reach and in the end if it doesn’t get right where we wanted them to, then we declare them as ‘disappointment‘. That’s sound ridiculous, you might ask. But that’s has been a ‘thing’ in recent times and it looks like it won’t go away any sooner either. Ok, back to the point.

                 The crowd pleasing, buzzy, funny, spectacular, funny and fun superhero cosmic road trip namely Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok opens on November 3, 2017 (Overseas starts rolling out a week before) might be in for that potential branding, so called ‘disappointment’. It boast an ensemble cast of Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Idris Elba, Jeff Goldblum, Tessa Thompson, Karl Urban, Anthony Hopkins and was being directed by Taika Waititi.

                  Years ago, still when people flocked to theatres in large to see it, yet nearly half of them were not happy with the way Thor: The Dark World turned out. Those people will be bewildered by revelation and laugh hard in disbelief if when they learn about the fact that ‘Thor 3 was as funny as hell’. Since early this year Thor: Ragnarok gone from an ‘mere‘ event movie as it’s now shaping up as a ‘A Must See Event’, fueled by strong early buzz, word of mouth (which was getting stronger every day) with added value of near perfect reviews. Marvel did all the right things leading up to it’s release. And I also presume ‘they’ might have already changed the perception of most of those people who came back not feeling good after seeing Thor 2.

                   So, the ‘bar for success’ was now set at potential $900m+ earner, with some seeing this to go over $1billion mark. I am keeping myself closer to the ground in term of BO expectations. With a very strong opening on it’s way with around $120m+ for the weekend, NA will pull somewhere around $290m-$320m in total depending on the legs. With yet another potential disappointment…sorry I mean, competition right around the corner, it might grow/shrink based on the reception of the upcoming biggie. Also overseas bounty  will be mighty too, as it will be looking to  lock in somewhere between $500m-$550m range. it will end it’s global run somewhere between $790m-$870m total. Yeah, those people were not entirely wrong when they said that it might pull something over $900m. But I only don’t entirely agree when people come out to express their disappointment when it doesn’t gets there. But no matter how high/low the total gross ends up, Thor Ragnarok already managed the impossible. It made us all fell in love with Thor Franchise once more. Especially with Infinity War looming, this was a very good sign for Marvel, as the audience’s fondness and interest to see Thor/Hulk/Loki on screen had been rekindled even further. That’s a big success in itself.

                   That’s it. Will be back soon, with few more since franchise movies keeps coming every two weeks especially during this time of the year. Oh yeah, we are also going to try to get our hands on one ‘very big fish’. Indeed.

Check out my previous post provided with links here: PART 4 PART 3 PART 2 PART 1

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo

Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 4.

                  Hello, everyone. Welcome Back. I am going to use a slightly different approach for this post which I believe will be more suited for the set of movies coming right through, for the discussion. Usually, I take one movie at a time, debating about it’s box office potential one by one, as a list. But here I am going to split it into two parts. At first, a seeming very long discussion which features 3 movies with surprising similar and equivalent box office potential. Also there lies a lot of possibilities for any of them to rise above/fall below the others in the end, if and only when rest of those 3 movies’  box office performance in some way or other fuels/stalls that particular movie’s projected performance. At the very end of this long discussion, we will see yet one more movie’s box office potential. But even that movie will be hoping not be lost in the conversation, honestly though which is exactly what was about to happen for the very same movie, here in this post itself. Let’s get into that Big discussion I was mentioning so much about. (Brace Yourself!)

                  This is War, we have here. To survive a war like this, you might need more than merely the ‘potential to survive’. As you might also need stroke of luck as well as precise timing of your decisions and actions, to even scrape through it. If the studios were at peace and may be more forgiving of each other, then we will probably be having the debate for each of those movies on three separate years or at the very least on separate months instead. After all, there will be no need for such a long discussion either. This war was not even originated here this year, but started a year ago when the studios slated their respective summer release movies for the year 2017. In the hindsight, we were all excitedly looking at one incredible line up of movies. At that juncture, we all cherished with overwhelming joy that we will be seeing at least one of our favourite franchise’s movie every two weeks until the end of summer and probably wished that the summer of ’17 was going to etched in our memory for a very long time.

                  But in reality, people started picking sides (choice) in particular picked the side which looked strong and capable of survival (promising). As the summer progresses, what once looked like a healthy competition between friendlies, soon turned out to be a minor clash of biggies. People stood by their side, while some were ultimately betrayed. Few people ended up disappointed with their own choice, while a few others totally abandoned their own side. This eventual clash gradually shaped up into war we are witnessing right now, which seeming not going to be wrapped up soon even after the end of this summer.  Let discuss the first one of those three strong sides, each contesting for glory and pride in coming weeks.

                  For Paramount, Transformers: The Last Knight and its faction of sci-fi robots recently took the battle field on June, 21 and was hoping to survive this war by contesting mostly on foreign grounds. In their home soil though they most likely to struggle a lot, if not doomed. At least for a week it may reign supreme, with a possible opening bounty of $60m or lower. Stars were aligned in way, that it will likely slide further in the coming days/weeks at home. But it is still possible it can quietly steal a decent bounty for itself, say $150m+ if lucky (at 2.5x). On the foreign soil, it already began its conquest strongly and might eventually gets to keep the territories it once claimed for itself. Who knows it may even gain some new grounds there.

                  On the foreign fronts, it will be expecting returns in the favourable range of $550m-$600m. It’s stronghold China alone will be looking to deliver somewhere between the range of $200m-$250m, once it was done and dusted. So it will be still looking at an optimistic figures even when excluding Chinese territorial income, for a total over/under $400m which might got trimmed further if the going get any tougher. So the final bounty of $750m+ was still in vicinity. When excluding all the war cost, which was now being estimated to reach as high as $220m, (will climb even higher when considering the cost of roping in the allies) it will be hoping that it was all for the good. Some of the names contesting for glory alongside The Last Knight includes Mark Wahlberg, Anthony Hopkins, Isabela Moner, Josh Duhamel, John Turturro, Stanley Tucci, Mitch Pileggi, Jerod Carmichael, Laura Haddock, Santiago Cabrera, Peter Cullen, John Goodman, John DiMaggio under the supreme command of Michael Bay.

                  If there was one thing which can be able to make a dent at Transformer: The Last Knight’s conquest and might steal away some valuable bounty, will be making the appearance a week later on June, 30. Courtesy of the Illumination-Universal alliance, this gru-some minions army alongside their boss (bosses!?) taking part under the name Despicable Me 3, might quickly steal the spotlight away from it. Or truth to be told it was actually the people who were all waiting in their wings for their true champions to finally arrive, since it was evident from the fact that Transformers TLK were not given such rapturous welcome. Further Despicable Me 3’s reign too may not be a long and prosperous one, since yet another faction will be arriving in the space of seven daylights (July, 7), a formidable Sony-Marvel team up of superhero faction bearing the title, Spider-Man: Homecoming.  More so, Transformers TLK will be nearing its end of reign by the time when these two takes the battle field for themselves. From there on, it will be contested between these two factions alone. Probably this contest may ultimately decide, who will take home the ‘summer crown’. But only one will reign supreme. Also there lies a possibility, even both of them may fails to grab the summer crown for itself, simply due to the fact that they had to contest among themselves. If that happens then the summer crown may still be retained by the reigning champion Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. (unless Wonder Woman’s revolution somehow managed to stay afloat in the game for a little while longer.)

                  No matter who wins the crown, it’s still possible that everyone involved can still collect a fair share of bounty each. Despicable Me 3 will be looking to claim the opening reward worth around $110m-$120m. From home base alone, it will be looking to take the total earnings as closer it can to $400m. Even if it did stumbles on it’s own path to glory, it can still take home anywhere between $360m-$380m (with 3.1x multiplier). Also it was looking to capture some attention from around the globe, but in a scattered fashion moving from one territory to another gradually gaining momentum. From the foreign turf, it will be aiming to score something close to $580m-$650m, thus positioning itself for chance at claiming the billion dollar milestone. The final tally looks to be in a very healthy range of $940m-$1.03b. Representing Despicable Me 3, which includes seasoned names such as Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Trey Parker, Miranda Cosgrove, Dana Gaier, Steve Coogan, Jenny Slater, Julie Andrews among others.

                  In case of Spider-Man: Homecoming, though it’s arrival was going to be embraced by people in large numbers, still many of them were yet to come out of the disappointment they had, in the hands of it’s previous two incarnations (mostly in the hands of the second one). It all started so well actually and I might argue that they probably should have contested under their original banner for a little while longer. If not for their very loyal supporters, their second outing would have been totally abandoned, at very least forgotten. So they will be looking forward for this contest to begin, with the hopes of delivering at their very best once again, only (yet again) under a different banner, while also being backed by entirely new as well as a formidable alliance. Will the loyal supporters of the older incarnations, turn up for their champions’ cause once more? Will this new alliance can bring back their old supporters in addition to it’s very own loyal kin of followers, into the huddle? We will see, when we see.

                  Now. how much treasure can this superhero mashup unearth? For that I have an answer. Sort of. From the domestic landscape, it will making an entrance worth around $120m. If the old alongside the new band of supporters turn up in flocks and thus providing valuable support, then it can even have a shot at something bigger. At the end of its reign, it may be looking to add around $320m-$350m to the treasury. Around the world, it may not be locking horns directly with DM3 in most cases, thus it had to make the most out of the situation to steal away $550m or higher. The chances to reach the billion dollar bounty may be slim, but not an impossible task. If the situation favours wherever it sets foot, then it will collect $870m-$900m in total, without breaking any sweat and the collection will be added to it’s once fabled treasury, the one which was being locked up for the past few years. Riding alongside Spider-Man: Homecoming, are names such as  Tom Holland, Michael Keaton, Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, Donald Glover, Jacob Batalon, Laura Harrier, Toni Revolori, Tyne Daly, Bokeem Woodbine and of course the legendary Robert Downey Jr.

                  That’s the end of the long discussion. You might ask, what’s in store for the someone who arrives after all this. This 20th Century Fox’s army of apes bearing the  title War for the Planet of Apes, so as to let people know of their own struggles will be making an arrival on July, 14.  Their team up boast names such as Andy Serkis, Woody Harrelson, Steve Zahn, Amiah Miller, Karin Konoval, Jude Greer, Terry Notary among others. In their native territory, they will fare somewhat better as it will be looking to grab some attention off ‘big three’ when it debuts with the collection of $50m-$60m and may pick around $140m or more at the end of its reign. And from the rest of the world, though it may not be getting reception like it’s own faction’s previous entrant received couple of years ago, yet may still climb respectable height. Sum of around $400m+ was still manageable from the overseas contests. So when the dust settles, this latecomer might still win some hearts with reasonable $540m-$550m bounty if not huge just like those three. And that’s how this inevitable war will conclude, and there will be peace…at least for the rest of the summer. There will be few rebellions and few more of surprise invasions but it’s nothing when compared to this big war about to be contested between these three. (Did I forgot to mention anyone?)

                   Thank you all for hanging around till the end. If you were interested in checking out my older post it was provided with the links here: Part I, Part II and Part III. As always, be there for the next one coming up on my blog (spoiler alert!) which was not the eventual Part V of the ongoing series. You will be in for a SURPRISE! See you all soon.

Legends: m stands for million; b for billion.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 3.

               We are now going to see more about the box office potential for few more of such franchise entries hitting the theatres this year, to note as we had already discussed in elaborate detail about a couple of summer kick-off movies in the previous post. I provided you the link of my previous post here. Now, I have 4 such franchise entries on my hand, already dissected and studied. Catch up with me folks, as we now foray into the realm of ‘weird‘ maths and ‘absurd‘ prophecies.

               Well, as people continues to choose or prefer one thing over another, from the start of this summer and continues to do so probably till the end of it, yet this mid-summer movie season was also about having the proper stuffs that audience were once promised, enough to justify their eventual choice(s), especially for those who stuck to these ‘franchise‘ thing(s) for a long time. So, this mid-summer movie season was more about ‘Promises‘ than choice(s) itself.

  1. Let start this prediction thing with once fabled and a unique franchise, which then held the promise of ‘only-sky-is-the-limit’ for this thing, but now got stranded midway. Also it’s marquee star was once a major box office draw, now drenched in the lots of negative media attention, in addition to his string of very poor showings at the box office might be going to affect this fabled franchise’s fifth installment. It was actually ‘him‘ who single-handedly steered the ship almost on all occasions. Walt Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales, arrives in the cinema halls around the world on May 26, 2017 (today) features Johnny Deep alongside Javier Bardem, Orlando Bloom, Brendon Thwaites, Kaya Scodelario, Geoffrey Rush, Kevin McNally. Talking about the box office potential of this one, though not looking promising enough, yet not looking like the one which was in a deep trouble. As of now, it looks like this (presumably) final Pirate adventure will perform more closely to series’ original numbers than it’s penultimate chapter, without factoring the inflation. Since the summer weekend slots were lined up with tentpole-y franchise entries on weekly basis thus it was of prime importance to rope in as much audience as possible on the opening weekend itself, then worry about the rest of the factors. So, I am going to be very cautious on predicting this one. It will open around $80m+($65m FSS) during the long Memorial Day weekend but will be sort of frontloaded in nature, as it may looking to close out it’s NA business with around $200m final total. Overseas was totally unpredictable these days, but arriving at the reasonable figure rather than the exact one was not that hard though. I predict a box office performance in the range of $550m-$650m from overseas markets. My final say on this one was that it will gross somewhere between $750m-$850m globally (if everything goes according to the plan). Off the record, I personally guess that it will gross in the range of $750m-$775m and thus so reaching the $800m+ milestone was a very distant possibility.

  2. Up next, we presumably have our first ever blockbuster-level successful, female-centric superhero movie, courtesy of  Warner Bro’s Wonder Woman if it delivers on it’s own promise. With much needed hype and social media attention, as well as the decades worth of comic book fan following behind it’s back, it was now shaping up to be an event film. Having said that, such event level credibility, was not even a guarantee for the success unless you either have a genuine/popular star and/or popular source material and/or being a part of popular movie franchise behind it provided it has reasonable budget attached to it. Wonder Woman will have the advantage of having all those. Ironicallyshe was under immense pressure that she needs to be so darn good than people usually expects it to be. Simply because of the fact that the ‘same people’ finally want their promises to be rewarded, since all the previous DCEU entries either failed or not wholly delivered on that very promise(s). Still I predict an optimistic $620m+ final global total for ‘her, more in the lines of recent superhero movies, such as Doctor Strange and Logan. It will open around $70m-$80m range and will finish with $220m+ from NA, with a very good final multiplier of 2.8x. Overseas, it will brings in around $400m, which will be stellar for any starter franchise (though it was still being part of DC Cinematic Universe). This superhero picture featuring Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman/Diana Prince, alongside Chris Pine, Connie Nielsen, Lucy Davis, Lisa Loven Kongsli, David Huston David Thewlis, Saïd Taghmaoui, Elena Anaya arrives in theatres on June 2, 2017.

  3. Hollywood recent obsession for Cinematic Universes was evident as we already bumped into at least four different cinematic universes entries so far. This one was yet another such entry we have here for this year, from Universal’s so called ‘Dark Universe’ (which was now official). It was also the fore mentioned universe’s launch vehicle, so a lot riding on it’s eventual success. Universal’s The Mummy will terrifies the theatres near you from June 9, 2017 which stars Tom Cruise, Russell Crowe, Sofia Boutella, Annabelle Wallis, Jake Johnson, Marwan Kenzari, Courtney B. Vance. It was very much a known thing that most Tom Cruise’s movies at least opens with an average around $60m and will smoothly rides to $150m+ total in NA alone. But we still have to see how much ‘him‘ being attached to some popular franchise entry might elevate it’s box office performance (when excluding MI franchise). Also coming in only a week after, Wonder Woman might hurt this thing to some extent. Still the demographic these two movies targeting were pretty much distinct. Overseas prospects were riding a lot on how deep the ‘awareness‘ had been spread, as it was crucial that people needs to be made aware of the idea that ‘The Mummy was a movie which stars Tom Cruise in the lead’ rather they end up seeing this one as ‘yet another Mummy movie coming to the theatres soon‘. Thus being the former plays to the movie’s advantage though it was not very clear how the notion of being ‘just another mummy movie’ will perform in theatres, if it even comes to that. Assuming that all those efforts which had been put in so far if quite managed to sell the former idea, then ‘The Mummy’ will soar higher and may even have a decent shot at finishing around $450m-$500m worldwide total. NA’s performance will be more in line with ‘average‘ Tom Cruise vehicle barring any miracle, for which I predict a $65m+ opening and will close out it business with over or under $160m total (through 2.6x multiplier.) Overseas, it will wrap around $260m-$300m or more, depending on it’s reception and final product’s appeal. So, I predict a $420m-$460m final global cume. Still  it got plenty of encouraging factors alongside so that it can climb even further and higher.

  4. Coming to the final one for this post, we have here was a ‘sort of revived’ franchise entry from the animation giant ‘Pixar‘. Walt Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 races into the theatres coming June 16, 2017 which features the voice cast of Owen Wilson, Larry The Cable Guy, Bonnie Hunt, Cheech Marin,  Michael Wallis,  Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Paul Dooley. Let roll over this thing quickly and get done with this post. With a incredibly buzzy teasers and trailers, Walt Disney did great with in doing what they were so good at. Creating Buzz. Providing more Promises. Drawing Attention. Also this being a kid-friendly offering will be an added advantage since many of this summer’s tentpole movies mostly been targeted at either teens or adults or sometimes both. It got everything going right so far but the historical box office performance of this decade old franchise’s entry were not that much big and impactful. They falls in the range between decent enough to good enough performances, also they (both) had been mixed-to-poor critical reception . We can only see how it will perform, only when it performs. For now, allow me do my own thing. Here, I predict a $520m-580m final total for this movie which target kids and their accompanying parents. With $180m coming from NA, provided it opens with around $65m+ and with another $340m-$400m coming from the markets around the world.

That’s it. I will be back with more updates with Part IV post, meantime I was planning on doing a spin-off post if I got any time for that, with one ‘Family’ trip around the corner. Thank you so much for your support. If you still not visited my previous posts yet, then feel free to go through those if you wish, which had been provided through the links below. Hoping to see you all once again, soon.

My previous post’s links were provided here for Part I  and Part II.

Legends: m stands for million; NA for North America.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 2.

               Hey there. Hello again. Good to be back. Here and again, we are going to have some fun with numbers, try to anticipate the ‘next big thing’, solve few ‘mystery boxes’ all the while talking something close enough to ‘rubbish‘. As promised earlier, I am going to shell out some predictions for few movies about how good it will perform in theatres. We have 4 such movies on the table, for us to dissect. So if you got any other plans or having any second thoughts about doing something else or might still been wondering how you ended up here, then don’t worry. You and I, are going to have a very long conversation. That’s it.

               Choice. That’s what we are going to talk about. Here we are looking at some incredible as well as frustrating amount of very popular movies of all sorts making it to the big screen, on weekly basis. On some occasions even two or three at once. So people had to chose one thing over another. That’s what this whole post was all about. Which one would people eventually going to pick in the favour of another? Which one will have the backing of its ‘own’ people, meaning ‘fans’, to ride the wave on its own? Which one was going to suffer the most, otherwise could/might have been the ‘big thing’ sans the competition? Let dig up for some clues or hopefully if we can, for some answers.

  1. We start with something ‘animated’. Sony’s Smurfs: The Lost Village was arriving at theatres on April, 7 which was only a week after the unexpected break out success of DreamWorks/Fox’s ‘The Boss Baby’. It may hurt this ‘second tier’ animation series entry, to some extent. We will see. But talking about the potential of this ‘threequel’, I won’t be surprised if it fails to deliver at same level as its predecessor. To be honest, it may never be able to reach the heights of the original The Smurfs reached way back in 2011. So keeping my expectation as low as it needs to be, then I am calling the shots on this one to make over/under $300m globally. That’s not a ‘curse‘ or something else. It was a partial truth as well as a partial answer to one of those questions. With an opening coming in the range of $18-20m, with optimistic 3.4x multiplier it will collect around $60m-$70m in NA. In overseas where it already began its roll out last week,  it will pull something around $210m-$230m. But if people in NA had other ideas, then it’s opening will drops to low to mid-teens and the final gross even below $50m (Hope, it was not going to be the case here).  If something like that happens, well unfortunately it may have to rely heavily on its overseas audience a bit more to save it from drowning any further. Smurfs: The Lost Village features the voice cast of Demi Lovato, Joe Manganiello, Rainn Wilson, Jack McBrayer, Danny Pudi, Julia Roberts among others.

  2. If Smurfs 3 will presumably suffer a lot because of the crowded marketplace, then this thing we got here has the potential to ‘strive‘ even on the cruelest and toughest of movie-going landscape. Ironically, this one looks likely to face comparably softer competition than the ‘rest of those which might get into some trouble because of the crowd’. As a result here we have one rare combination of  ‘potential biggie’ as well as  a ‘mystery box’. I presents to you, Universal’s The Fate of The Furious. It’s coming to theatres on April, 14  which boast a long list of cast that include names such as Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel with Kurt Russell, Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren. As you very well knew that the previous entry, Universal’s Furious 7 blew away all those box office prediction as it went on to became one of the biggest movie ever worldwide. Also it still remains Hollywood’s biggest ever export to China. At box office, it collected an incredible $1.516b worldwide. But F8 was going to perform unlike F7, which partly rode on the huge wave of interest of seeing late Paul Walker, one of Fast & Furious series’ main stay in action alongside his on screen ‘Furious’ family, for one last time.  Still the trailers for F8 were extremely popular, which shows that the interest was there. Indeed, huge. That’s why I called it a biggie in the meantime a mystery. We are going to do a three-way split predictions here, thanks to the series’ surge in popularity and  tremendous success in China. First up NA. It may perform well below the previous entry F7 baring any fluke.  I see an opening around $120m. I also presume that it may play more or less exclusively to the fans and will close out with a decent-but-not-great 2.2x final multiplier, for the final gross around $240m-$250m. Well for China, if you asked me a couple of years ago, I should have guessed a $450m final total with even a slight possibility for $500m. But the recent slip-up in movie-going business there can’t get this one there. For reasons unknown for the past year or so, Hollywood imports began burning fast in China, so to some extent opening huge was the key. It may open in the range of $150m-$160m, as it was evident from the recent trend that it may close out with 2x multiplier, for still huge $300-$320m total in china. If these prediction holds, then it will even have a shot at $600m total coming exclusively from these two markets alone. From the rest of the world it will be bit ridiculous to expect this one to earn another $500m easily, but it may or may not happen. For now, I am predicting only $425m-$450m total from the rest of the world. Yes, I am calling this one as a potential $1billion grosser, if it performs closer to the higher end of my predictions. There was many chances it will perform bigger than I had expected. Globally, I feel like F8 will make anywhere around in the range of $970m-$1.02b.

  3. As we are now entering Summer movie season, you know obviously well who was going to kick start the season this year. Yep, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 2 will launch this year’s summer season when it arrives in theatres on May, 5. This sequel to the crowd-pleasing original which features the cast of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel(voice), Bradley Cooper(voice), Michael Rooker, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff with Sylvester Stallone and Kurt Russell and also James Gunn returning as Director. To note, almost more than half of the movie going populace felt it in their bones that this one too have that unique charm, very much like the original, once after seeing the trailers and stuffs. There was no doubt, this one was going to be big. Only question was, ‘how big?’ Let start with NA‘s prediction. I presume people might have decided to stay away from the bunch of other movies, because I had this feeling, they might have already picked this one as their prime choice. Keeping that in mind, it will have big chance at clearing $450m domestic total, if it won’t then will have very little to no trouble in topping $400m. It will open around $165m (or way above that) and will leg it out to $465m with pretty good 2.8x multiplier if it was as good as the original. Overseas prospects was very unpredictable to predict with so many tentpole movies launching almost every week. But still GOTG Vol. 2 will have no trouble in collecting somewhere around $525m-$550m overseas. If people got what they came to expect from this and/or if the word of mouth was good, much like the original, then it can fly even higher than I had predicted here. Déjà vu alert! My final say on this one was that it will take around $980m-$1.02b globally from box office receipts. To be honest this one right here, have more chances to reach that fancy $1 billion mark than F8 have though my numbers seems to encourage only the latter. (Obviously!)

  4. Just one more before we wrap up. Arriving on May, 19 this summer Fox’s Alien: Covenant will have a chance to survive and thrive in one of most crowded summer ever, only if Guardians Vol. 2 wouldn’t quite managed to set the box office on fire. But that’s definitely not gonna happen. In the contrary, Alien: Covenant might end up being something that tried too hard to get enough attention or something actually good enough to which people didn’t paid enough attention to. Also to state the most obvious fact here and I am really very sorry for saying this that it was definitely not some $1b or may be even a $700m box office pay cheque and it should not be ashamed of that. Because that’s how difficult for the movie makers now-a-days to thread one mega-franchise out of something that seem to have started off things in a very encouraging note. If you take a look at Fox’s Prometheus numbers*, you can see for yourself that it had all the signs to become a next big blockbuster franchise. In some different year or in the exact same month belonging to an alien planet, even if it was only half good as what people came to expect but still it will easily make $500m give or take. But in reality, even a very good Alien: Covenant  might struggle to get there or may not even possibly get there by any chance (Apologies, again). Well even if it manages to perform more in line with Prometheus, it still deserves a lot of credit. I am guessing it will make around $120m from NA, courtesy of  $45m opening  with 2.75x multiplier. For overseas, it will be around not-so-great but still very optimistic $260m. It may close out with over $380m but may finish slightly above $400m mark, depending on few over-performances of sort, coming from some overseas markets. This Ridley Scott directed space-adventure/horror stars Michael Fassbender, Katherine Waterson, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir among others.

               Originally, my choice was to do the post containing predictions for at least eight movies. Since, I didn’t want to drain you of all your energy and also with the intention of saving some of mine’s, though with numbers for those next ‘four’ already in hand I chose to save those for the very next one. If you haven’t came across my Part I, here it was. Hope you got what you came far. But for those who were feeling betrayed and actually came here expecting more, then do feel free to check back again for the Part III post arriving soon. The next ‘four’ on my list also includes Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales and The Mummy. A tease of things to come.

Legends: m stands for million; b for billion; NA for North America.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 1.

Hey Everyone! We are going to have some fun with numbers here, by making some solid to ridiculous guess works. In return, who knows, we might end up making some all-telling prophecies or in few other cases, completely utter trash. It was the part and parcel of this box office prediction game. Let’s get this thing going.

                  To state the obvious, I am playing catch up game here and more so we were already looking at some incredible string of franchise entries, making it to the theatres this year. If I am correct, hope I was, we are having 38 such franchise entries for the year 2017. Personally, I am only going to pick 30. Point being, 6 of those already playing in the theatres. Well that means, technically, I am going to do the box office prediction ‘only’ for remaining 24, yet only after quickly getting through those ‘six‘ first.

 1. We have a rare thing here (It still is!) but I wish Hollywood and ‘Rest-of-the-world-woods’ will make more of those, I mean enough of those, in very near future (well, if you look at this year’s movie schedule the signs are pretty encouraging and obvious) . A female-centric action/fantasy movie. What a fabulous way to start this year’s predictions. I am talking about, Sony’s Underworld: Blood Wars starring Kate Beckinsale, Theo James, Lara Pulver, Charles Dance.  This sleeper franchises sure had brought people to the theatres every time it came out to play, if not massive but decent. Back then, Underworld was only such franchise which was popular enough, to be based on vampire-werewolf mythology, until Twilight came and stole it’s thunder. It’s modestly budgeted ($35m) fifth instalment released this January, did ‘just’ fine at theatres recently.  It picked up a little over $30m in North America and a notch above $50m overseas. Having so far grossed over $80m to date, it looks like it didn’t have enough firepower left, to take this one over $100m milestone globally. For me, it did okay. Just ‘okay’.

2. Next up, Paramount’s xXx: The Return of Xander Cage with one of most diverse cast featuring Vin Diesel, Donnie Yen, Deepika Padukone, Kris Wu, Ruby Rose, Tony Jaa, Nina Dobrev, Toni Collette with Samuel L. Jackson. Arrived earlier this year, on January, this action-adventure did just okay in North America, but kicked ass overseas, as it currently boast a surprisingly good $338m+ worldwide gross. Well, having a diverse cast and Vin Diesel-Donnie Yen popularity in China helped it propel to this massive total, despite hugely under performing in NA with mere $45m. But it flexed it muscles overseas, to land itself within a touching distance for a $300m+ overseas total. Having grossed $293m+ already overseas, with China alone pulling off $150m+ by itself, this franchise sure earned it’s place back, as one of the popular movie franchise around, among the many, many, many movie franchises currently active in the Hollywood and elsewhere.

3. We have another of those, what I had earlier called as ‘a rare thing soon-going-to-become-frequent’. Now, Sony’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter  and the cast includes Milla Jovovich, Ali Larter, Shawn Roberts, Rubin Rose, Eoin Macken, William Levy and Iain Glen. It opened earlier on January this year and I had already seen it in theatres. Hey, I am sure not going to review it. To be fair, I am not even good enough to do that yet. So, speaking of box office potential of this movie, until just a day before I began working on this post, it sure looked like a dud, only to get patched up by the massive Chinese opening weekend. It pulled of an unimaginable $94m+ opening and nearing $150m mark there. Irrespective of whether or not it will reach any specific milestone, it was ‘Hit’ nevertheless. A very big one, indeed. As it stands now, it a earned fabulous $307m worldwide($27m in NA, $280m overseas). Kudos for that. Yeah, without factoring inflation adjustment, it became the biggest of the series worldwide. I sort of didn’t see that coming.

4. How about this one! A franchise based on the popular toy brand, makes a movie based on one of the most popular superhero on the silver screen. WB’s The Lego Batman with voice cast featuring Will Arnett, Zach Galifianakis, Micheal Cera, Rosario Dawson, Ralph Fiennes among others. Had been in theatres since early February, and was turning out to be a decent second outing if not massive like the original. Also it’s playing more like Lego sequel and lot less like the one based on ‘Batman and his friends’. So with few international markets left to venture, if this one have any extra pieces to build up on it’s already decent $275m global gross, it may tower itself to something-close-to-massive figure of $350m. Well, for now it seems like a distant possibility, let’s hope that it didn’t even had to lose any more bricks to reach $320m worldwide (with $158m  in NA and $116m overseas) against the reported as well as encouraging $80m budget.

5. We have another of those thing which attracts more female audiences than the rest but not even close or as same as the kind of movies we visited earlier. I mean, I only meant to say that we are dealing with some seriously intense stuff here. You know what I mean. In saying so, we have here the second installment of hugely successful original, Fifty Shades of Grey. Well, Universal’s Fifty Shades Darker starring Jamie Dornan and Dakota Johnson in the lead, opened in February and was performing comparatively softer than the first. Yet we can’t rule this out as an underperformer of any sorts. It tends to happen with most of the sequels, if the original turned out to be kind of great or else rode on the wave of built-in popularity. Till now, it collected nearly $370m globally ($112m in NA and $256m elsewhere) and still got few markets left. If lucky, it may get to $400m global, but not a sure thing.

6. Next one was ‘Genre defining’ or we can at least say that it turned out to be an unique blend of the most popular genre of this decade. Well, studios were making sure, we will get more such ‘Hybrids‘ in years to come. As of now it was one of its kind. An R-Rated, Superhero-Drama. Name was Logan. This 20th Century Fox’s  offering feature stars Logan Hugh Jackman(his final appearance as Wolverine), Patrick Stewart, Boyd Holbrook, Dafne Keen, Stephen Merchant.  Having been in theatres since March 2nd, it pulled off a massive opening of $88m in North America and $159m from the rest of the world, to land itself as one of the biggest R-Rated global opener ever with $247m total. It claws were now sinking deeper into the movie goers interest, despite being R-rated, notably unlike its on-screen predecessors. Also getting a huge boost from overwhelmingly positive reviews and good word-of-mouth, it so far amassed ridiculously awesome $437m global (NA-$155m and Rest-$282m) . Also, it managed to hold off against a ‘beast’ this weekend. With notably Japan still to come, it might have no trouble in clearing $600m, if Japan performs convincingly better and also if it holds well against yet another “Beast” arriving early march, it may even claw its way to somewhere in the range of  $620m-$650m with $230m from NA and closer to $390m-$420m elsewhere. If I got anything left to say, this is it. “Simply, Wow!”

7. Here comes my first prediction of the year. I am deeply saddened by the fact I already missed six. Though I took solace in the fact, that I still got 30 more ways to makes me sounds like crazy as…Okay, first up, WB’s Kong Skull Island which boast the cast which includes Tom Hiddleston, Samuel L. Jackson, Brie Larson, John Goodman, Jian Tian among others. I did my predictions even before it opened, but can’t be able to post it soon enough. Well, my prediction stood at $45m but Kong climbed it’s way past $60m in US. If it’s great world of mouth delivers it will sure cross $150m mark in NA. Overseas as well was bigger that I thought it will be, claiming a beasty $65m launch (mine’s was at $50m). So globally it stands now at $146m. If it makes even halfway decent business from here on out (2.5x multiplier), keep in mind that it still got China and Japan in it’s grasp, it may even get to $550m-$600m probably. But $480m-$520m (NA $155m, overseas will come around $325m-$360m) was more than just assured for this movie, which was part of Hollywood’s only sixth such ‘Cinematic Universes’ currently made it to screens, after counting MCU, DCEU, Star Wars, X-Men and Conjuring. (I know there are few others still announced or in development or in production, but I only listed those universes which managed to show their connectivity through it’s films.) But only thing working against it was it’s overwhelming expectations and immense pressure of having a price tag of over $300m(budget + marketing). So people are already fuming over it, and waiting on their wings to slay this beat and to call it a huge disappointment, even if it gross notch or well below $600m. Irrespective of that scenario, if people are already enjoying this one and was willing and interested to see more from this ‘beast’ universe, then it was already a crowning success in it’s own term.

 8. This one was a mystery box. I had only one such mystery box last year, in the name of ‘Marvel’s Doctor Strange’, but luckily we…uh..I…have more than few this year. Lionsgate’s Power Rangers, arrives in theatres on March 24, 2017, this one got enough fuel to pull the distance as it has a established fan base, popularity among audiences and eye-candy trailer. It also features a very young, fresh faces with Dacre Montgomery, Naomi Scott, RJ Cyler, Becky G, Ludi Lin with Bill Hader, Bryan Cranston alongside Elizabeth Banks providing familiarity. But sometimes having enough fuel doesn’t even matter or may be in some cases it was all that matters. I quite can’t figure out where it belongs. With reported $105m budget, which was something quite good for any movie trying to make big on blockbuster landscape, so it’s become quite clear as it needs to make something close to $350m-$400m to be declared as a hit. More so even if it end up short, but if the ride was fun and everybody on board was in for another one or the next one, that’s what is of the prime importance for this franchise starter. We don’t need any space-science-level interpretation, to say or even declare that they were going to end up making a sequel out of this one. Come what may, it was me being realist here, so I am predicting a fine $320m global total. I called it a mystery because I am not sure how it was going to make it there or how far it will go from there. Presumably in US, with stiff competition from ‘Beast’, it will be difficult to top $100m there. Who knows it can even have a shot at $125m if it was good and people actually longing and waited for this franchise to arrive on silver screen. So my guess was $85m+ courtesy of $30m-$35m opening. Elsewhere, with some help from China, I think it will get close to $230m+ sparing any trouble. It kills me if I didn’t share this, well, my favorites from Power Rangers mythology were SPD and Wild Force. Yep, you got a fan over here!

            Yeah, I know I technically didn’t gave out as many predictions as the title promised, but this was Part I of presumably four-part post and I still can’t get over the fact I missed six, ****! So, please be there for the next one, which will be out soon probably covering eight movies with names like Guardians Vol.2, Pirates 5, Wonder Woman and Fate of The Furious in the vicinity. I was already so excited to get there. See you all soon!

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo. (Figures were updated as on Monday, March 13, 2017.)

Repost: Few corrected errors, some filled in details about the cast as well as studio’s name being prefixed to all the films’ title, were the purpose of this repost. Prediction and all stays the same.

Predicting Box Office Success of Ongoing, Returning, Budding Movie Franchises For Year 2016 – PART 3.

Note: The article was based solely on my own speculations and guess-work, so it may or may not turn out to be accurate or true, in future. Have fun and patience reading this.

If you were really been following my previous posts, welcome back. As you know by now, that I am not so good at delivering promises, yet I will regret so much if I hadn’t been able to pull off this one and finish what I had once started. So without further ado, let hop into my box office predictions of existing/potential  franchise entries for 2016(Fall/Winter). We are now going to see 6 such franchise entries, in this post. After that, I am going to present an overall picture of where the franchise’s Box office performance stands, against my  own predictions.

  1. First, we are going to discuss the fate of one sequel which was entirely or heavily banking on its lead actor’s star power. Yes, I am talking about Paramount’s October release, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back featuring none other than Tom Cruise, one of the most bankable stars in Hollywood at the moment (and also for nearly past four decades). Throughout his career, he was very rarely been accounted for a box office disappointment or outright underperformer, still on most accounts his movie’s success were often largely credited to his screen presence. While the original film Jack Reacher back in 2012, performed unlike most of modern tentpole or star-driven films, as it opened with considerably moderate $15m+ weekend but legged out to gross a little over $80m in US and Canada. With foreign grosses accounting for $138m, its final worldwide box office managed to climb above $200m, which was a norm for  many Tom Cruise movies. So it was safe to bet yet another $200m+ grosser, but Paramount was hoping more than just an average hit from this sequel, as they seek for a crucial turn around from an already miserable run at the box office this year. Still a month to go and marketing push might change the fate of movie drastically now-a-days, and so does the word of mouth as well as critical response (to some extent). Even if everything things turns out ‘just’ okay, then it will open with $30m+ in US and will gross above $80m there. Overseas, with Tom Cruise box office momentum, it may flirt with $200m. I see a total gross over $250m globally. Further, it will be facing stiff competition from four other major wide release launching alongside it on the same weekend, which might hurt it’s prospects. So my final say on this already prolonging discussion will be, that we will be probably (still) looking at $310m+ grosser, with performance in US providing $90m+ coupled with strong overseas performance by collecting over or under $220m. Jack Reacher 2, also starring Cobie Smulders, opens in theaters on October, 21.

  2. Next up was Tom Hanks starrer, Sony/Columbia’s Inferno, which will see him reprise his role as, Dr. Robert Langdon, a fictional character adapted from Robert Ludlum’s popular novel series. Historically speaking, this silver screen adaptation of said novel series did pretty well at box office. Series original, Da Vince Code grossed over $750m worldwide, but as most franchise do these days,  then the sequel titled Angels and Demons grossed significantly less than its predecessor as it totalled out for $485m. Solid but not great. Speaking of threequel, there was very little chance the movie we are seeing here was less likely to gross $700m, since the original got big boost from the curiosity or interest or whatever you wish to call, from its controversial story premises. Here stays my current prediction for this movie, which I predict will likely gross more in line with sequel both in US or overseas or both. It will likely open to $40m and will pull around $120m in US and will probably more than double that figure overseas for likely $250m-$275m overseas, for the global haul between $375m-$400m range. Even though it may out gross fellow October launch Jack Reacher 2, yet I hate to see this franchise’s box office trend going downwards. But this is probably what we can expect, when it opens in theaters on 28, October 2016. It also stars Felicity Jones, Irrfan Khan, Omar Sy, Ben Foster. Also the music was composed by my personal favorite, Hans Zimmer.

  3. Open your mind, we are now diving into the bigger picture. Marvel cinematic universe, currently the most successful franchise in Hollywood and beyond, launching their most obscure yet more interesting entry into their franchise canon with Marvel’s Doctor Strange, arrives in theaters on November 4, 2016. Starring ‘Fan Favourite’ Benedict Cumberbatch, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams, Tilda Swinton, Mads Mikkelsen  and Benedict Wong, the cast of this movie itself, a big selling point. As it’s director pointed out in SDCC 2016 event, it was the “left turn” for MCU. With MCU momentum behind it, how far can it go, speaking in terms of Box office? Well, what is the presumed ceiling for such standalone MCU entries, which does not feature ‘core members of the Avengers’? Will it perform more in line with Marvel’s Ant Man ($520m global) or more like MCU‘s critically acclaimed blockbuster hit Guardians of the Galaxy ($770m+ global) did couple of years ago. Or was it going to hit the middle ground like the likes of Iron Man($580m+), Iron Man 2($620m) and Thor Dark World($640m), when not accounting for ticket price inflation? Those questions will be answered soon. As you see and know, there was definitely huge interest for this one. But when it’s critical reception and word of mouth turns out better than expected, then we can easily be pushed to a situation, where all our predictions might go wrong. Apart from the controversy surrounding the casting choice ‘not faithful to source material’  regarding Ancient One, it has everything positive going with it.(I personally likes the choice they made with ‘Ancient one’. Strictly my personal opinion, I swear.) With lot of positive buzz, ever-growing MCU fan base as well as huge Disney-Marvel brand recognition behind it, I can see it can go mush higher than we all actually guess. With me being realistic here, as I am predicting a launch of $65m in US for the total gross of $170m or less and overseas numbers will be around $350m, which gives the worldwide total around $520m. Exactly what Marvel’s Ant Man grossed in July 2015. But I am an optimist, so I am predicting something close to $230m in US, courtesy of $85m-$90m opening, along with $400m overseas for a massive global haul of $630m. Note: If it does that, then it will become highest grossing movie in MCU franchise, which was neither a sequel nor a team up movie. As it stands now the franchise highest for such feature entry was the MCU‘s debut, original Iron Man which grossed $585m, way back in 2008.(I am betting on it.)

  4. Predicting this one was much harder that it seems. Following the successful conclusion of the original series, it seemed a while ago Hollywood was done with this franchise. Yet here we are again, with another entry looming into this mythology. With WB’s Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them  will bring the magical world where Harry Potter and friends belong, back to the silver screen. With audiences having found their closure with this series, which concluded with Harry, Ron and Hermione together defeated the evil Lord Voldemort and living happily ever after. So it may not inspire many such audiences who was mainly there to see, what happens next for Harry Potter and his friends. Well, franchise faithful will eventually turn out in masses to visit the Harry’s wizardry world once more, so as to witness the new adventure unfold on silver screen. Also, the ‘curiosity factor’ of finding the new corner of this famous mythology may attract more eyeballs, but it’s impact on BO will be modest. So it will have to largely depends on the marketing push, to let the audience know, ‘there is more to this wizardry world than we had already seen’, which was more likely an important selling point, based on my personal opinion. So, (phew!) considering all those I giving this silver screen ‘return‘ of this immensely popular franchise entry to close out over or under $260m in US courtesy of ‘frontloaded‘ opening in the range of $100m+. As always, this one was going to be bigger in overseas. So I am applying the franchise ‘norm’ of 32/68 split of BO revenue in US/Overseas, then we will be looking at potential $810m global picture, with overseas pulling around $550m. I assure you, this is the best case scenario, we are looking at and me being little optimistic here. It launches in theaters on November 18, which stars Daniel Radcliffe (sorry, my bad!), Eddie Redmayne, Katherine Waterston, Ezra Miller, Dan Fogler, Colin Farrell among others. Also, with franchise very own, David Yates who returned to direct this spin-off.

  5. Now we are going to see a ‘stand-alone spinoff set in the mythology’ or we can call it ‘prequel-cum-sequel to the original-prequel trilogy’ or may be even bit of both. It doesn’t make sense, right? Well, no worries. This is ‘Star Wars’, we are talking about. So the very notion of that alone, was well enough to get you intrigued about this picture. Disney/Lucas Films’ Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will be launching in theaters on  it’s very own ‘week before Christmas’ slot, on December 16, 2016. Well, I presume I didn’t have to explain or emphasis on the fact about what we are dealing with or how big this one was going to be. Because, we all knew very well about that. Still, the ceiling set by its ‘theatrical‘ predecessor, Star Wars Episode VII was too high, as we were beginning to doubt even Episode VIII can’t be able to match or climb such heights. Thus, we are going to play safe with this one. A $100m+ opening was more or less guaranteed. Also, we still can’t declare this inevitable winner as ‘disappointment‘ or ‘underperformer‘ even if it gross well below Episode VII. Here, I am predicting something in the vicinity of $135m+ opening. With the December legs, then this will eventually gross around $485m+ (with 3.6x weekend multiplier) enough to end its runs as ‘highest grossing film of the year 2016, domestically’. To repeat the feat worldwide, it will eventually have to perform unlike any other ‘Star Wars’ movies did historically in their overseas play. At this point, the average revenue split for Domestic-Overseas gross, for this franchise was 45-55 split. With diverse cast, I was hoping, that this entry was going to be an exception for this historical franchise. So with 40-60 revenue split, the gross will come around S725m+ from overseas, which then brings the worldwide total to a massive $1.21b or above. With massive fan base and holiday season, will only boost the final figures even higher, we can’t be so sure about what the final numbers will be. Rogue One boast a line up which features Felicity Jones, Riz Ahmed, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Forest Whitaker, Alan Tudyk, Donnie Yen, Jiang Wen and Mads Mikkelsen. Hoping I will be at least half-right about this one, let move on to the final one.

  6. Since I had discussed enough times about the rugged box office history for video-game based movie franchise, I going to make this one short. If there was one solid lesson I had learnt from video-game based franchise, well, I am going to be very cautious here in predicting this one. With charismatic lead in Michael Fassbender, 20th Century Fox’s Assassin’s Creed will arrive at theatres on crowded December, 21 slot. Well, all the previous four movies we discussed earlier, have at least one wide-release movie to deal with, on its opening weekend. But unlike this one, they all will be opening alongside a movie either targeting a specific demography or will be playing exclusively to its target audiences. So they usually didn’t eat much into each other. Whereas in this case, it was severe. First of  all, it had to negotiate with, 2nd weekend of Rogue One(presumably $75-80m if the said opening weekend number holds), also had to deal with the opening weekend of Universal’s Sing, and then with Jennifer Lawrence-Chris Pratt vehicle, Sony/Columbia’s Passenger. Since it opens on Wed-Sun frame, the weekend play will be long but the legs will be presumably shorter. Look for a $70m Wed-Sun frame($40m Fri-Sun) and US total in the range of $160m-$180m. Overseas was going to be shot in the arm, for this franchise hopeful. The foreign gross will come around $320m. If it  ends up in the higher end of this prediction,  then we may be looking at the first ever $500m+ grosser for a video-game adaptation. Not sure, but hoping it does. It also stars Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Irons, Brendan Gleeson, Michael K. Williams and Ariane Labed.

Now, the wrap-up. Well, if you were following me all along, then you might very well be aware of the box office rankings of many popular franchise, which I put together earlier in my Part I post. Now, I am simply just going to update those figures and rankings, based on the numbers few franchise entry grossed this year, so far.

(Movie: My predictions vs. Actual gross*My personal verdict.)

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3: US $140m/Overseas $540m vs. $143m/$376mRight about US, not even close overseas.
  2. Deadpool: $150m/$280m vs. $363m/$420mDidn’t see that coming.
  3. Allegiant: $45m/$230m vs. $66m/$113mWrong again.
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: $450-$480m/$700m vs. $330m/$543m Way below than expected. Again, wrong!
  5. Huntsman :Winter’s War: $110-$130m/$230m vs. $48m/$116mAgain!
  6. Captain America: Civil War: $475m/$650m vs. $408m/$744mSlightly underperformed in US and overperformed elsewhere. We are even.
  7. The Angry Birds Movie: $120m/$230m vs. $107m/$238mGotcha!
  8. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising: $115m/$135m vs. $55.3m/$52.6mDead wrong.
  9. Alice Through The Looking Glass: $280m/$600m vs. $77m/$222mWhat the hell!
  10. X-Men Apocalypse: $230m/$575m vs. $155m/$388Underperformed. Wrong.
  11. TMNT Out of  the Shadows: $140m/$320m vs. $82m/$163mVery wrong.
  12. Warcraft: $210m/$300m vs. $42m/$386mWrong about US, came close overseas.
  13. Now You See Me 2: $80m/$275m vs. $65m/$266mVery close.
  14. Finding Dory**: $310m/$520m vs. $484m/$477mRight about overseas, Underestimated it domestically.
  15. Independence Day: Resurgence**: $200m/$450m vs. $103m/$284mWhat went wrong? Apparently, my guess.
  16. Legend of Tarzan**: $135m/$250m vs. $127m/$229mYippee!
  17. Ghostbusters: $200m/$200m vs. $127m/$100mGlad, I was wrong.
  18. Ice Age: Collision Course**: $150m/$550m vs. $63m/$340mWrong about both.
  19. Star Trek Beyond**: $230m/$300m vs. $157m/$175m It really did let me down.
  20. Jason Bourne**: $220m/$280m vs. $160m/$235mWrong about US, but very close  overseas.
  21. Suicide Squad**: $320m/$350m vs. $313m/$406mRight about US, came very close overseas.

*Actual gross may vary, since **those identified movies were still in theatres.

Before concluding allow me to update the Ranks and updated box office gross amassed by some popular franchise, courtesy of its new entry/entries invaded into the theaters this year, till date.

(#Global rank[Change from previous year] Franchise, No. of movies, Worldwide gross, US gross & its respective rank in braces).

  • #01, Marvel Cinematic Universe, 13, $10.24b, $4.00b (#01).
  • #02, Harry  Potter, 8, $7.72b, $2.39b (#03).
  • #03, James Bond, 26, $7.04b, $2.11b (#05).
  • #04, Star wars, 8, $6.71b, $3.19b (#02).
  • #05, Middle Earth, 6, $5.88b, $1.85b (#06).
  • #06[↑2], Batman, 12, $4.68b, $2.27b (#04).
  • #07[↑7], X-Men, 9, $4.38b$1.82b (#07).
  • #08[↓2], Spider-Man, 5, $3.96b$1.58b (#08).
  • #09[↓2], Fast and Furious, 7, $3.89b, $1.29b (#15).
  • #10[↓1], Transformers, 5, $3.78b, $1.32b (#14).
  • #11[↓1], Pirates of the Caribbean, 4, $3.73b, $1.28b (#16).
  • #12[↓1], Jurassic Park, 4, $3.69b, $1.42b (#11).
  • #15[↑2], Ice Age, 5, $3.21b, $793m(#28).
  • #20[↑10], Superman, 7, $2.54b, $1.14b (#17).
  • #22[↑2], Star Trek, 13, $2.263b, $1.4b (#12).
  • #23*, DC Extended Universe, 3, $2.260b, $935m (#22).
  • #25[↑21], Captain America, 3, $2.24b, $844m (#26).
  • #28*, Finding Nemo Series, 2, $1.90b, $865m (#25).
  • #30[↑2], Kung Fu Panda, 3, $1.82b, $524m (#43).
  • #34[↑8], Bourne, 5, $1.62b, $799m (#27).
  • #42[↑7]Alice Live-Action, 2, $1.32b, $411m (#61).
  • #46*Independence Day, 2, $1.21b, $409m (#62).
  • #47*,TMNT , 5, $1.15b, $584m (#38).
  • #64The Conjuring, 3, $894m, $324m (#81).
  • #77Divergent Series, 3, $765m, $347m (#78).

* franchise earlier being placed outside of Top 50, at the beginning of this year.

Note: Those rankings were given out on the basis, if when not including Hobbit, Lord of the rings and The Dark Knight series as a separate franchise. Thus so certain website references and their rankings may  vary from the above list.

That’s it. Thanks for coming back. I do hope, I will repeat the same next year. I really appreciate if you give away your thoughts on my three-part analysis., on comments section below. Links for my previous post were provided here: Part I and Part II.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

Predicting Box Office Success of Ongoing, Returning, Budding Movie Franchises For Year 2016 – PART 2.

Note: The article was based solely on my own speculations and guess work, so it may or may not turn out to be accurate or true, in future. Have fun and patience reading this.

Hey, everyone. It been over a month and a half since I last posted. Sorry for the delay. I think only few, indeed very few people paid attention to my Part I post, which encouraged me more to continue my work, with part II and an inevitable part III of my predictions. I had already finished my calculations and (mostly) guesswork for this part II as well as upcoming part III, which will be posted back to back, within a space of week or two. I promise, no such delays this time around. So, here we go!!

Well, in the last post, we discussed the box office fate of 10 such franchise entries, in the order of their domestic release dates. Now we are going to take 11 such potential movies. While in most cases, I had no or very little idea on how high those movie might end up in terms of box office grosses. So please don’t take anything on personal level, if in case I had predicted an ill fate or else underestimated the success for any of your favourite movie franchise(s). Have fun reading.

  1. First up, we have Summit Entertainment’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opens June 3rd, 2016 (starring Megan Fox, Stephen Amell, Will Arnett). With Alice: TTLG and X-Men: Apocalypse, still only a week old in theatres, this may affect its business significantly. Though the last entry TMNT, dethroned the surprise blockbuster hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, way back in 2014 when it opened with huge $65m+ opening weekend. Such a big numbers on the opening weekend was highly unlikely, because it was also due to the fact that people turned out for TMNT, only to see Turtles’ return to the big screen after lying dormant for nearly a decade. Expect a softer opening in $45m-$50m range. With similar (2.9x) multiplier like the previous entry, it will end up grossing as high as $150m. Though with crowded market place, it may gross even lesser, say 2.7x multiplier was looking more realistic. So, it will gross $140m in US. As usual, it will play well in overseas compared to domestic run, leading me to believe that it will collect something close to $320m overseas. It will likely wrap up with an impressive total of over/under $460m worldwide.

  2. Next, we are seeing Universal’s Warcraft which opens on June 10, 2016. Here, we have another potential franchise starter but this one have arsenal of characters which were looking far more interesting and exciting, than previously discussed the Angry Birds Movie (which also itself have some very funny and many colourful characters too). Though both are video-game adaptations, the idea of Warcraft looks more appealing. Though both have the immense advantage of having a very huge fan base, outside of that I personally feels, Warcraft was looking more like a crowd puller. Whereas, Angry Birds Movie was just a crowd pleaser (which is not an insult). The latter tag may help the movie to hold well in the consecutive weekends, but former was needed to open bigger. If movie was good as everyone expected, then it will indeed do well in the weekends followed by the big opening, as well. Considering all these, I am predicting a $65m opening. I am being optimistic the movie was going to be good, so with 3.5x multiplier it will close out the domestic run with over/under $210m. Overseas it will be playing in theatres for two weeks, in many key foriegn markets, before entering the domestic circuit. So it’s box office fate will be pretty much sealed even before it begin its domestic run. We may be looking at $270m-$300m range thus gives the worldwide total of around $500m. If it does exactly that, then it is good news for the movies based on some popular video-game(s) coming later this year.

  3. It comes in at the time frame and in the situation, as similar as its predecessor, which entered the movie market (alongside After Earth) when Furious 6, Hangover III and Epic still playing in their sophomore weekend. Also, Iron Man 3 and the Star Trek sequel were still performing strongly as well, in its 5th and 3rd frame. Crowded, then. This year, the sequel to the moderate BO hit, caper-heist thriller Now You See Me, will be opening along side previously seen much bigger, highly ambitious Epic Fantasy film, Warcraft. It still had to wrestle with TMNT2 in its weekend two, as well as with ATLG and XM: Apocalypse. Crowded, again. The original movie ended with the promise of still more exciting things to come, so I am expecting an opening around $25-35m(depending on how well the Warcraft movie been received). So with the multiplier of 2.8x, it will finish its domestic run with $80m-$100m total. Overseas will do even better with $275m finish more likely, thus look for the final worldwide total in the range of $350-$375m. Lionsgate/Summit’s Now You See Me 2 opens on June 10, 2016, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan with Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Mark Ruffalo and Daniel Radcliffe.

  4. We are going to look at one returning franchise’s entry, which was more akin to something that will be looking to tap the nostalgia of moviegoers, rather than something that being seen as inevitable sequel. Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory (featuring Ellen DeGeneres, Albert Brooks, Ty Burrell opens June 17, 2016.) lands in the theatres in the middle of summer this year, will be targeting the family audiences. Definitely, it would be CA: Civil War which will kick start the summer with a bang, well it looks like Finding Dory might be the movie which keeps this summer going, I guess. It was movie more about keeping up with the good work as well as goodwill earned by the original and not about converting general audience into fans to build themselves a new one or expanding the existing one. The real challenge lies in the fact that the original often considered as ‘one of the greatest animated movie ever made’, so even a slight drop in quality and execution may significantly damage the movie business. Still, even if the movie was not as good as original (Finding Nemo) and barely managed to meet its expectations, it will still earn over $750m worldwide. So my conclusion was, if movie was very good but not great then it will likely pull around S80m opening in US. With good but not great 3.8x multiplier(advantage being family audience flocking with their kids), it will likely gross  $310m in US. With overseas it will bring around little over $500m if it plays well in key markets such as UK, France, Germany, Australia, Japan, Italy and China. If everything goes it way, then it will even have chance to steal billion-dollar figure. So my prediction was in the range of $310m US gross,  with $500m-$520m overseas, for $810m+ worldwide total.

  5. Nostalgia Strikes Again. The movie in our hand right now was just going to do that. It’s original, Independence Day, was considered as one of the greatest sci-fi movie of all time as well as the biggest movie ever in terms of box office way back in 1996 (also one of my personal favourite). Until an year ago (2015), it was placed among top 50 highest grossing movies of all time in term of box office receipts but only got pushed out of Top 50 by barrage of tent-pole movies which recently made it to theatres in 2015. However, the real question was whether it’s sequel, Universal’s Independence Day: Resurgence, in today’s dollar even with the higher ticket prices, massively expanded foreign markets and IMAX screenings on it’s side, will be able to top the original’s still impressive global gross of $817m ($307m in US). Audiences will flock to see it, no matter, even if this movie was not that good as original. The exclusion of Will Smith might be one of the prime factor, for the movie’s diminishing returns. But my guess was it may only affect it’s play in US (and in some key markets where he was so popular elsewhere) but overseas was different picture this time around and $400m was as low as it can get. My guess (still not a solid guess, I guess), was this one to gross well above $650m+ worldwide, with $200m+ in US courtesy of $60m opening and  around $450m from rest of the world.

  6. Summer also see the return/revival/reboot of sorts which will bring back one of the iconic character to screen, Tarzan. Of course, WB’s Legend of Tarzan, it is. Well I am going to make this one short, since I got zero idea about how well this movie will do when it opens on July 1, 2016. But this movie had few positives if you ask me. With David Yates behind this one, along with some good array of cast which includes Alexander Skarsgard, Samuel L. Jackson, Margot Robbie and Christopher Waltz, it looks promising. As well as trailer was okay, but should have been great. But trailer doesn’t suggest or define the quality of the movie in whole, yet it was the key to get audiences’ interest. Having said all those, I am expecting this one to pull something close to $120m-$135m in US with opening around $40m-$45m range. In overseas, it will do just better by grossing over/under $250m. Projected worldwide total will be $375m or above.

  7. Sony/Columbia’s Ghostbusters starring an ensemble cast of Melissa McCarthy, Kristen Wiig, Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones opens in theatres on July 15, 2016. It was officially a reboot, which features an all-out female cast as opposed to its original. It was not just about targeting females audiences, but to make this reboot outright unique. It was not just for the change, better even if not seen as a stand-in for the cause ‘Hollywood for feminism’. That’s what actually diminish the potential for this kinda movies. The very notion of ‘female-centric’ will only make the matter worse, at least in my opinion, as people will only see this as ‘triumph of female power’ as opposed to the good content, great direction and/or interesting characters if this movie become a breakout success. If such movie fails, the blame will be and only be imposed on taking ‘female-centric’ approach rather than bad content, terrible direction and/or uninspiring characters. Hollywood, and the whole world along with it, had long been doing this mistake. Personally, I feels that if this world needs to  be a  better place, then  women’s  representation, contribution and participation had to be either equal or preferably  a notch above men, if that really had to happen. That’s for another conversation. But always see movie as a movie, a person as a person. People buy tickets mostly to have fun, sometimes to get inspired from the content it provides, often relates to the characters it boasts. Its not Hollywood’s to decide that female-centric movies as less fun and/or less successful just because of that being female-centric. Also audience needs to start seeing this one as another supernatural comedy film which feature some exciting characters than seeing this one as female-centric movie surrounding supernatural subject with a comedic touch. So if everybody agree with what I just finished telling, then it will bring over $750m worldwide with ease. That’s not the case here, world is changing and that change was in progress. As of today, realistically speaking, it was projected to gross around $200m in US (opening $70m range), another $200m overseas for the total of  over $400m. Forgive me, for the outburst. This’s what a blog was all about, right. Speaking our mind, as it is. Let’s get to the next one quickly and shortly.

  8. At the close of the summer this year, arrives fifth installment of this very popular animated franchise, Fox’s Ice Age: Collision Course, which opens domestically on July 22, 2016. While the history points in every direction, that this one was going to be big nevertheless, but the box office potential may be hampered a bit, by the highly anticipated installment of another long running franchise which opens alongside this one. As all four previous installments, earned $160m or above in US alone, it was sensible to put the projection at the same range. Well overseas was different picture, as I always say. Its previous movies grossed $200m+, $450m+, $690m+ and $710m+ respectively overseas, in chronological order. So you might got the idea of what I am going to do with this one. It was safe to assume that it will gross at least $650m overseas or may show a slight growth. So, keeping in mind the competition it had to face, I predict for this one to bring around $150m in US with opening of $50m-$55m range, along with $550m-$600m overseas for massive worldwide total of $700m-$750m range.

  9. One long running franchise mentioned above was none other than, Star Trek. It continue its intergalactic journey, with the third entry of its alternate reality series, with Paramount’s Star Trek Beyond starring Chris Pine, Simon Pegg, Idris Elba, Zoe Saldana and Zachary Quinto. Opening in theatres in US and in many major movie markets on July 22, this one was looking to gain more ground this time and also the studio behind was betting (also hoping) on this one to make, the ‘Star Trek’ their future space-adventure franchise tentpole. So with high hopes and rekindled interest (thanks to those previous two entries by JJ Abrams) it will be looking to pull something in the range of $230m+ in US. I put the opening projection for this one at $75m range. With me hoping it will do even better overseas than its predecessors, I am putting my guess (and faith) on this one to gross $300m-$325m for final worldwide total of $550m or above.

  10. We now had came down to the final two. It may be the continuation of an ongoing franchise but it marks the return of the character it was built upon, Jason Bourne. Yes, Bourne franchise returns with Universal’s Jason Bourne, on July 29th this year. Fingers Crossed. I am not been able to say how much big it will be or how much it will improve in quality compared to last one. But interest for this movie was immense as it was already been hailed as ‘one of the most anticipated’. It will likely  gross around $220m in US and another $280m+ in overseas. It may go higher if people around the globe had similar interest and hype on Bourne franchise, as US audiences have. Worldwide total gross will be little over $500m.

  11. Talking about anticipation,  well then Jason Bourne comes nowhere near this one in terms of anticipation. It was already skyrocketing. I was obviously been taking about DCEU’s next/third installment, WB/DC’s Suicide Squad which boast an ensemble cast includes Margot Robbie, Will Smith, Jared Leto, Jai Courtney, Cara Delevingne and Viola Davis to name a few arrives in theatres on August 5, 2016. Directed by David Ayer, it was a story about a group/team of Supervillains come together to execute some dangerous black ops missions for a Government’s secret agency. See, how that sounds. It sounds awesome and cool. Unique, if you ask me. So I have to put my anticipation as well as excitement levels for this one aside, to predict something close to reality. Otherwise, I might start to sound outright ridiculous or insane. Speaking of which, it will gross around $300m-$320m in US, with the opening looking at the range of $95m-$110m. Overseas, it might gross more in line with US. But with Joker character hype featured in and Will smith addition to the star power may push the total a little higher. We are looking at foreign gross of over/under $350m. Final global total will be around $650m-S670m range.

Thanks for your time. Apologise if I took so much of your time. But that’s what blog post was all about. Please do come back to check out Part III. If in case you missed Part I, it’s  right here.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

Predicting Box Office Success of Ongoing, Returning, Budding Movie Franchises For Year 2016 – PART 1.

Note: The article was based solely on my own speculations and guess work, so it may or may not turn out to be accurate or true, in future. Have fun and patience reading this.

Hollywood love Franchise. So do we. As it was made clear last year 2015, Hollywood saw many franchise return to the silver screen, even after lying dormant for years (in few cases a decade or two), yet attracted audiences and fans to the theatres, in masses. While the rest of the established/budding franchise also pitched new entries, as their follow-up to the yesteryear entries. (Note, if you are here, only to learn/know about my speculations alone you can skip the following paragraph, which is all about franchise film making in general.)

Now, there are notably three kinds of movie franchise. One, as they normally (1) pick up or (2) go back to some point, from where the last movie closed out. Here we are talking about SEQUELS/PREQUELS. Two, neither (3) have any connections to the ongoing story  nor (4) have any impact on direction of its own story, from the events occurred in main plot, so we have SPIN-OFFS. Finally we have a franchise, which can take any/all the above said directions (1-4), yet may (5) even bring a new/an existing character(s) to an ongoing plot and/or (6) can crossover with other storylines, thus impacting many/few parallel plots drawn throughout the franchise, over the past as well moving into  future. Nowadays, the most popular of them all. We call them, CINEMATIC UNIVERSES. (Kudos! If you are still reading this and everything still made some sense.)

In terms of box office success, Hollywood was dominated by franchise-based movies in particular, save few standout originals such as Frozen, Avatar (sadly not for long), Inception, Inside Out, 2012, Gravity, Interstellar, Sixth Sense, Forest Gump, E.T to name a few. Marvel Cinematic Universe now placed as both domestic and worldwide champ had grossed more than $9b in total to date, with the twin release of Avengers: AOU ($1.4b) and Ant-Man ($519m) last year. James Bond, with Spectre ($877m and counting), had further established itself as one the best ongoing Action Franchise, putting Bond back at Top 3. Fast and Furious came out of nowhere and landed into Top 10. Jurassic‘s dinos blasted it’s way out of the park and now sitting just outside of Top 10 (now at No. 11). As we had new opening king* with Jurassic World ($1.67b), later in the year we also had a new champion with Star Wars: TFA ($1.99b and counting) bringing Star Wars back to Top 5. Suffice to say, overall 2015 was a great year for Movie Franchises at box office.

Before going into my predictions, lets take a look at the box office history of some popular franchises. When ranking the franchises based on non-adjusted US and Worldwide grosses, which were listed below as it stands on Feb. 06, 2016. (#Global Rank, Franchise, No. of movies, Worldwide Gross, US gross & its respective rank in braces).

  • #01, Marvel Cinematic Universe, 12, $9.08b, $3.59b (#01).
  • #02, Harry  Potter, 8, $7.73b, $2.39b (#03).
  • #03, James Bond, 26, $7.04b, $2.10b (#04).
  • #04, Star wars, 8, $6.47b, $3.15b (#02).
  • #05, Middle Earth, 6**, $5.88b, $1.85b (#06).
  • #06, Spider-Man, 5, $3.96b$1.58b (#07).
  • #07, Fast and Furious, 7, $3.89b, $1.29b (#14).
  • #08, Batman, 10, $3.80b, $1.93b (#05). [incl. Catwoman]
  • #09, Transformers, 5, $3.78b, $1.32b (#12).
  • #10, Pirates of the Caribbean, 4, $$3.73b, $1.27b (#15).

**Franchise wrapped up; *Opening record later beaten by Star Wars: TFA.

Also to be noted: #11, Jurassic Park,  4, $3.69b, $1.46b (#08). #14, X-Men, 7, $3.05b, $1.30b 3. #17, Ice Age, 4, $2.81b, $729m#20, Iron Man, 3, $2.42b, $1.04b. If you really don’t care, yet I do, Superman at #30; Kung Fu Panda #32, Bourne #42, Captain America at #46Alice #49 were few notables among Top 50. So many others left unmentioned, since I’m not considering them for this year’s predictions. Say, Thor which is now at #47. Alright. No more history, numbers and rankings from now on, moving on to my predictions. (Hoping everybody still with me!)

Here are my predictions for franchise’s sequels/prequels, potential franchise starters, cinematic canon entries and few spinoffs releasing through May 2016, in terms of box office grosses. We have in total of 10 movies to see here. (I also avoided another 7 such franchise entries in doing so.) We will see the new rankings, once this 3part post was done and dusted. Here we go!

  1. Kung Fu Panda had seen the return of this popular animated franchise, with DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 (in theaters right now, reviews also good). So it made this one easier for me, to predict the final outcome as we already have on-par opening in US and stellar opening in China which means it can easily cross $600m global, with $150m in US and $450m Overseas. If it over-performs in china, it had a clear shot at grossing over $700m. It now stands at $130m+, will cross $175m global after this weekend. So my final guess for this one was $680m global, with $140m in US and $540m overseas.

  2. Pool, Dead. Yeah! Starring Ryan Reynolds in title role, Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool was unknown force, yet got heavy box office potential. It’s opening next weekend, February, 12. Coupled with valentine’s day boost, this one going to be big for Fox/Marvel’s X-Men, if not massive. With opening projected to top $60-65m, with 2.3x multiplier (since R-rated) will finish at $150m range in US. With China already banned, we are looking at 60-65% gross coming from rest of the world, so it might pull around $280m overseas. Global total at $430m-$450m range.

  3. Heading into March, we have two such entries. Well one was all about arresting the slide of YA fiction movies. With 5th Wave under-performing, all eyes on Divergent series next installment, Lionsgate/Summit’s Allegiant (starring Shailene Woodley, Theo James) opens March, 18. With $571m in the kitty, this franchise was looking to gain more ground with this new entry expected to gross over $300m. Though I am little sceptical about this one grossing $300m+, rather it will still crack $275m global with US $45m (with opening at $20m range) and overseas $230m combined.

  4. If Deadpool was going to be big. This one was sure going to be huge. Very huge, indeed. WB/DC’s Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice, sequel to Man of Steel, boasts an ensemble cast of Ben Affleck, Gal Gadot, Amy Adams, Henry Cavill, Jeremy Irons and  Jessie Eisenberg to name a few opens on March, 25. No need to be mention, that it will bring Batman & Superman together for the first time ever on silver screen. Though not quite good as expected, yet Man of Steel pulled massive $667m. With everybody’s favourite Batman and all powerful Princess Diana along side, I have no doubt in BVS grossing $1b globally. All signs point to its overwhelming reception, which will open with massive $160m debut, may be even higher. Even with ‘mere’ 2.5x multiplier it will easily top $400m domestic. If movie was good as everybody was expecting, then with 3-3.2x multiplier it will collect $480m-S510m domestically. Overseas was much difficult picture. Even when received poorly overseas, it will easily top $600m. So with all the hype and market place all for itself for at least a month, it is going to top $700m at least. So my guess, with $450m-$480m domestic and over $700m overseas, it will ultimately gross $1.15-1.2b in total. If it does, it means a lot for DCEU moving forward and upwards. (Way to go, Zack!)

  5. Next up was spin-off/sequel/prequel put together in one  arrives on April, 22. Universal’s The Huntsman Winter’s War, a Charlize Theron/Chris Hemsworth/Emily Blunt/Jessica Chastain vehicle, the second entry in Snow White and the Huntsman Franchise. It has little-to-no history behind it, to predict its box office potential, but indeed have huge star-power to propel it.  I am predicting $40-45m opening. With 2.7-2.9x multiplier, it will pull anything in the range of $110m-$130m in US and may do even better overseas with $280m. So we are looking at worldwide total around $400m, not bad. (If it gross any better than that, it will then be attributed to presence of star-studded cast alone, yet it looks like it still need them anyway, to even pull those above said numbers.)

  6. With May, arrives ‘the big’ entry for today’s most dominant Hollywood Franchise, MCU, to kick start their Phase III. Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War, starring Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson, Sebastian Stan, Anthony Mackie, Jeremy Renner, Elizabeth Olsen, Don Cheadle, Chadwick Boseman, Paul Rudd, Paul Bettany, Daniel Bruhl, arrives in theatres on May, 6. It has everything going in its favour. Be it, hype or anticipation or box office success of its predecessor(s) or audiences’ goodwill (earned by CA: The Winter Soldier)  were all behind this one. A few against it. Say, expectation which was sky rocketing. Also many seeing this as Avengers 2.5, but technically Captain America 3, may be disappointed if it turns out any different. Adding fuel to the fire, were much awaited appearances of Spidey and Black Panther along side fellow Avengers (still only attracts established/existing fan base, my guess). It will debut for $170m opening. If the movie was merely ‘good’ but not great, then it will close out domestically with 2.5x multiplier, for US gross of $430m. Overseas, again it all depends on how people see it, as Avengers 2.5/Captain America 3. If it play like Avengers 2.5, then it will pull mighty $750-800m. Otherwise, it will be around $600m, still huge. It was not an excuse if it gross well below BVS or AOU worldwide and/or in US, just because many people merely seen it as CA3. But something tells me (I am rooting for Russos!), it will top $475m in US and $650m in foreign markets, for global total around $1.125b. If it gross $100-200m more, well I won’t be surprised if it does.

  7. A potential franchise starter. Based on one of the most popular video game franchise, Angry Birds, now pitching its own movie franchise with Sony/Columbia’s Angry Birds The Movie arriving on May, 20. Even with one of the biggest video game community behind it, it is yet to be seen whether it can be able to duplicate it massive success at silver screen as well. Also its main target audience were kids, which eventually pull adults audience as well, with parents needs to accompany their kids in first place. Considering all that, we have $40m opener. With good reviews and reception, it can easily get 3x multiple or higher, to finish it run at $120m domestic and it may not double it’s domestic gross overseas, but will collect around $230m. Total gross over $350m against the reported $80m budget, will be good enough for kicking start this new franchise. (Historically, video-game adaptations had tough times at box office over the past, so it may gross well below those said figures.)

  8. Opening on same day-and-date as Angry Birds movie, Universal’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (sequel to Neighbors, starring Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne, Chloe Grace Moretz, Zac Efron) had young-adult audiences in its sight. Though not widely popular as many of those previously discussed franchise entries, it success relies heavily on its comedic strength and in attracting casual moviegoers. With predicted $35-40m opening, it will finish its run with $115m. It may improve marginally overseas, with total of approx. $135m. Total Gross will be in $240m-$250m range.

  9. At close of May, arrives possible ‘overseas might’. Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass (Mia Wasikowska, Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter & Anne Hathaway returns for this Alice in Wonderland sequel) opens on May, 27 alongside another big franchise entry. Unlike Neighbors 2-Angry Birds clash, this was all about winning back/retaining the loyalty of established fan base and delivering the quality that matches or exceed original/previous entries. If Alice TTLG delivers a movie just like that, it opens around $85m  and finish over/under $280m in US. Overseas, if plays on same level as the original it will gross $700m but realistically will gross only around  $600m. With china release date not set or may get banned once again, so look for $860m-$880m global total.

  10. Finally, we have another big player arriving on May, 27. This year offers another new entry for this established mutant-based franchise X-Men, with Fox/Marvel’s X-Men: Apocalypse (starring James McAvoy, Jennifer Lawrence, Michael Fassbender, Oscar Isaac, Rose Byrne, Olivia Munn to name a few). We will be looking at over $110m opening possibly, if it hadn’t clashed with Alice TTLG, thus resulting in little bit lower opening at $90m. Still good. If it performs similar to DOFP in US, we have $225M domestic total (a decent 2.5x multiplier). Chances are there, as it can perform even better overseas this time around for total over $550m and finish globally with $775m. If pulls anything insane in China, such as figures close to $200m, we will be looking global gross for Apocalypse well over $800m. Scenarios apart, my guess for this one to gross $230m in US, $575m overseas and global total a little over $800m.

I will wrap up my 2016 predictions with two more post, which will be ready in few days. Please do return to check those out as well. This is my first post ever, so any suggestions, ideas are welcome. I do promise, the remaining two post (my second and third ever) will be much, much shorter and have more interesting content. Thank you again for reading.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.