First I had to wrap up this one quickly, before I even start working on that ‘spin-off’ post I had teased you about, in the earlier post. So here we are going to see the possible outcome of the franchise movies hitting the theatres this fall at the box office. (As far me it was an entirely different season over here in the southern hemisphere and that’s not even relevant to this post.) We have ‘five‘ such movies over the table, ready for study and dissection. So roll up the sleeves and let’s begin.
Rolled into theatres yesterday 20th Century Fox’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the sequel to 2015 sleeper hit, will be hoping and looking to repeat the feat the original had quietly managed a couple of years ago. Still it was going to be hard, since the original which opened during February that year opened with modest $36m+ ($41m+ long weekend), but somehow managed to get around $128m in US, and more so it performed exceeding better overseas as it collected $286m+. It collected $414m+ globally, which was over 5x of its $80m budget sans marketing cost. To note the R-rated movies had been witnessing an upward trend for the past couple of years, it might play into it’s advantage as well. It opened yesterday (September 22, 2017) in US and also been rolled out into some foreign territories as well. With few new addition of marquee stars, we will see how much it will improvise over the original. Still I am playing a ‘realist’ here, so I expect this movie to open with $40m+ over the weekend in US. I also assume it will be more frontloaded in nature as it will likely wrap up it’s run with around $115m in NA. Also in the hindsight, looks like there might be a chance for this sequel to top original in the overseas run at very least, still I guess it might fall short of that too. I am expecting the numbers somewhere around $270m range. Worldwide, it will gross somewhere between $365m-$390m. Look, if you had asked for my optimistic predictions then I would have went on to declare that it will be around $480m-$510m. Still I prefer to play this one safe, particularly during this time of the year. More so, if the budget will be as modest as it’s original, it didn’t have to outperform it’s original to be considered a success. Simply enough, it only had to match it with a similar run at the box office. It boast a star studded line up which includes Colin Firth, Taron Egerton, Pedro Pascal, Mark Strong, Elton John, with Channing Tatum, Jeff Bridges, Halle Berry, Julianne Moore among others.
Opening alongside Kingsman TGC, was an animated counter-programmer WB’s Lego Ninjago. Before the start of this year, the expectations for this movie were notch higher than it were in the recent weeks, since to many of our surprise Lego Batman Movie considerably underperformed. People were expecting LBM movie to out-do the original, yet it only collected $310m+ worldwide. Let me get clear about one thing here. Just because some movie performs way below people’s expectation doesn’t mean that it was a failure. And I am not the one who wish for this particular movie or be it any movie(s) to fail at the BO, I was simply laying down my guess. Lego Movie did very well; Lego Batman Movie did okay. So if I had to put some numbers on the board for the third entry of this franchise, first of all I must have to lower my expectations a ‘little bit’. Who knows, if people love what they see and if the interest grows, then without doubt that it might even perform way above what I have guesses. As far as my prediction goes, I now stands at $45m+ opening with a similar run like it’s predecessor from thereon will land this movie in a ‘okay but not terrible’ range of $140m-$150m in NA region. Overseas will bring somewhere around $140m-$160m. So barring any surprises, it will pick up little more than $300m globally. Lending their voice to LNM were Dave Franco, Justin Theroux, Fred Armisen, Abbi Jacobson, Olivia Munn, Kumail Nanjiani, Micheal Pena, Zach Woods and Jackie Chan among others.
As we all know, Hollywood obsession with the franchise movies had been growing exponentially in recent years. As a result, we have here a continuation of once popular cult franchise (which was until an year ago, considered by many that it was done for good) was getting yet another installment this fall. Lionsgate’s Jigsaw, eighth installment in Saw franchise, will be keeping some hostages at the movie theatres for a while, after it opens on October 27 and the cast that includes Matt Passmore, Callum Keith Rennie, Cle Bennet among others. The budgets for all the franchise entries were maintained in the range of $1.2m-$11m dollar throughout, with the exception of SAW 3D (7th installment) which carried the price tag of $17m. Against the cumulative budget of $64m and it so far managed to pull a mighty $873m+ from box office collectively. So, will it cross $1billion milestone? It has to. If not, this franchise at whole will be ridiculed as failure and declared as ‘monumental’ failure. The tool to detect a box office failure had got this much simpler, wow! Okay, coming to the declaration of it’s projected performance at the BO, Jigsaw will make around $55m from NA courtesy of $20m+ range opening. Assuming a 44-55 NA vs. overseas split, it will kidnap around $70m from theatrical collections. If it performs as close to I projected then it will have clear shot at $1bn+ cumulative milestone with $125m+ worldwide, and so can be able to save the whole franchise from the embarrassment.
So before we get into yet another ‘projected disappointment’, at first let’s wrap up a small thing playing against that foresaid big ‘doomed’ thing. A sequel to the blown out success from the last year ‘Bad Moms’, will be popping some party poppers this November. Yeah, Christmas had arrived early for this bunch, since the proper Christmas weekend/month was now under the jurisdiction of Jedi and Sith (it had been the case for past two years). The original collected around $180m+ worldwide against $20m budget, an whooping 9x final multiplier. To expect the sequel to perform in line with the original will be ridiculous, as well as it was all that depends on the budget of the sequel. If the had sequel cost as much as the original, then it got itself in a good spot to begin with. Setting the budget cost aside, I now presume that it will open in the $25-30m range and will collect around $80m+ from NA. Overseas run will probably be in the same range as NA, as it was likely to collect a similar $80m+ from elsewhere, for global total of around $160m. STX Entertainment’s A Bad Moms Christmas was about to kick start their celebration on November 3, and the people being exclusively invited to the party were Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Kathryn Hahn, Jay Hernandez, Cheryl Hines, Peter Gallagher, Christine Baranski and Susan Sarandon.
One more to go…