Predicting Box Office Potential of The Active/Returning Movie Franchises For The Year 2017 – PART 4.

                  Hello, everyone. Welcome Back. I am going to use a slightly different approach for this post which I believe will be more suited for the set of movies coming right through, for the discussion. Usually, I take one movie at a time, debating about it’s box office potential one by one, as a list. But here I am going to split it into two parts. At first, a seeming very long discussion which features 3 movies with surprising similar and equivalent box office potential. Also there lies a lot of possibilities for any of them to rise above/fall below the others in the end, if and only when rest of those 3 movies’  box office performance in some way or other fuels/stalls that particular movie’s projected performance. At the very end of this long discussion, we will see yet one more movie’s box office potential. But even that movie will be hoping not be lost in the conversation, honestly though which is exactly what was about to happen for the very same movie, here in this post itself. Let’s get into that Big discussion I was mentioning so much about. (Brace Yourself!)


                  This is War, we have here. To survive a war like this, you might need more than merely the ‘potential to survive’. As you might also need stroke of luck as well as precise timing of your decisions and actions, to even scrape through it. If the studios were at peace and may be more forgiving of each other, then we will probably be having the debate for each of those movies on three separate years or at the very least on separate months instead. After all, there will be no need for such a long discussion either. This war was not even originated here this year, but started a year ago when the studios slated their respective summer release movies for the year 2017. In the hindsight, we were all excitedly looking at one incredible line up of movies. At that juncture, we all cherished with overwhelming joy that we will be seeing at least one of our favourite franchise’s movie every two weeks until the end of summer and probably wished that the summer of ’17 was going to etched in our memory for a very long time.

                  But in reality, people started picking sides (choice) in particular picked the side which looked strong and capable of survival (promising). As the summer progresses, what once looked like a healthy competition between friendlies, soon turned out to be a minor clash of biggies. People stood by their side, while some were ultimately betrayed. Few people ended up disappointed with their own choice, while a few others totally abandoned their own side. This eventual clash gradually shaped up into war we are witnessing right now, which seeming not going to be wrapped up soon even after the end of this summer.  Let discuss the first one of those three strong sides, each contesting for glory and pride in coming weeks.


                  For Paramount, Transformers: The Last Knight and its faction of sci-fi robots recently took the battle field on June, 21 and was hoping to survive this war by contesting mostly on foreign grounds. In their home soil though they most likely to struggle a lot, if not doomed. At least for a week it may reign supreme, with a possible opening bounty of $60m or lower. Stars were aligned in way, that it will likely slide further in the coming days/weeks at home. But it is still possible it can quietly steal a decent bounty for itself, say $150m+ if lucky (at 2.5x). On the foreign soil, it already began its conquest strongly and might eventually gets to keep the territories it once claimed for itself. Who knows it may even gain some new grounds there.

                  On the foreign fronts, it will be expecting returns in the favourable range of $550m-$600m. It’s stronghold China alone will be looking to deliver somewhere between the range of $200m-$250m, once it was done and dusted. So it will be still looking at an optimistic figures even when excluding Chinese territorial income, for a total over/under $400m which might got trimmed further if the going get any tougher. So the final bounty of $750m+ was still in vicinity. When excluding all the war cost, which was now being estimated to reach as high as $220m, (will climb even higher when considering the cost of roping in the allies) it will be hoping that it was all for the good. Some of the names contesting for glory alongside The Last Knight includes Mark Wahlberg, Anthony Hopkins, Isabela Moner, Josh Duhamel, John Turturro, Stanley Tucci, Mitch Pileggi, Jerod Carmichael, Laura Haddock, Santiago Cabrera, Peter Cullen, John Goodman, John DiMaggio under the supreme command of Michael Bay.

                  If there was one thing which can be able to make a dent at Transformer: The Last Knight’s conquest and might steal away some valuable bounty, will be making the appearance a week later on June, 30. Courtesy of the Illumination-Universal alliance, this gru-some minions army alongside their boss (bosses!?) taking part under the name Despicable Me 3, might quickly steal the spotlight away from it. Or truth to be told it was actually the people who were all waiting in their wings for their true champions to finally arrive, since it was evident from the fact that Transformers TLK were not given such rapturous welcome. Further Despicable Me 3’s reign too may not be a long and prosperous one, since yet another faction will be arriving in the space of seven daylights (July, 7), a formidable Sony-Marvel team up of superhero faction bearing the title, Spider-Man: Homecoming.  More so, Transformers TLK will be nearing its end of reign by the time when these two takes the battle field for themselves. From there on, it will be contested between these two factions alone. Probably this contest may ultimately decide, who will take home the ‘summer crown’. But only one will reign supreme. Also there lies a possibility, even both of them may fails to grab the summer crown for itself, simply due to the fact that they had to contest among themselves. If that happens then the summer crown may still be retained by the reigning champion Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. (unless Wonder Woman’s revolution somehow managed to stay afloat in the game for a little while longer.)

                  No matter who wins the crown, it’s still possible that everyone involved can still collect a fair share of bounty each. Despicable Me 3 will be looking to claim the opening reward worth around $110m-$120m. From home base alone, it will be looking to take the total earnings as closer it can to $400m. Even if it did stumbles on it’s own path to glory, it can still take home anywhere between $360m-$380m (with 3.1x multiplier). Also it was looking to capture some attention from around the globe, but in a scattered fashion moving from one territory to another gradually gaining momentum. From the foreign turf, it will be aiming to score something close to $580m-$650m, thus positioning itself for chance at claiming the billion dollar milestone. The final tally looks to be in a very healthy range of $940m-$1.03b. Representing Despicable Me 3, which includes seasoned names such as Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Trey Parker, Miranda Cosgrove, Dana Gaier, Steve Coogan, Jenny Slater, Julie Andrews among others.

                  In case of Spider-Man: Homecoming, though it’s arrival was going to be embraced by people in large numbers, still many of them were yet to come out of the disappointment they had, in the hands of it’s previous two incarnations (mostly in the hands of the second one). It all started so well actually and I might argue that they probably should have contested under their original banner for a little while longer. If not for their very loyal supporters, their second outing would have been totally abandoned, at very least forgotten. So they will be looking forward for this contest to begin, with the hopes of delivering at their very best once again, only (yet again) under a different banner, while also being backed by entirely new as well as a formidable alliance. Will the loyal supporters of the older incarnations, turn up for their champions’ cause once more? Will this new alliance can bring back their old supporters in addition to it’s very own loyal kin of followers, into the huddle? We will see, when we see.

                  Now. how much treasure can this superhero mashup unearth? For that I have an answer. Sort of. From the domestic landscape, it will making an entrance worth around $120m. If the old alongside the new band of supporters turn up in flocks and thus providing valuable support, then it can even have a shot at something bigger. At the end of its reign, it may be looking to add around $320m-$350m to the treasury. Around the world, it may not be locking horns directly with DM3 in most cases, thus it had to make the most out of the situation to steal away $550m or higher. The chances to reach the billion dollar bounty may be slim, but not an impossible task. If the situation favours wherever it sets foot, then it will collect $870m-$900m in total, without breaking any sweat and the collection will be added to it’s once fabled treasury, the one which was being locked up for the past few years. Riding alongside Spider-Man: Homecoming, are names such as  Tom Holland, Michael Keaton, Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, Donald Glover, Jacob Batalon, Laura Harrier, Toni Revolori, Tyne Daly, Bokeem Woodbine and of course the legendary Robert Downey Jr.


                  That’s the end of the long discussion. You might ask, what’s in store for the someone who arrives after all this. This 20th Century Fox’s army of apes bearing the  title War for the Planet of Apes, so as to let people know of their own struggles will be making an arrival on July, 14.  Their team up boast names such as Andy Serkis, Woody Harrelson, Steve Zahn, Amiah Miller, Karin Konoval, Jude Greer, Terry Notary among others. In their native territory, they will fare somewhat better as it will be looking to grab some attention off ‘big three’ when it debuts with the collection of $50m-$60m and may pick around $140m or more at the end of its reign. And from the rest of the world, though it may not be getting reception like it’s own faction’s previous entrant received couple of years ago, yet may still climb respectable height. Sum of around $400m+ was still manageable from the overseas contests. So when the dust settles, this latecomer might still win some hearts with reasonable $540m-$550m bounty if not huge just like those three. And that’s how this inevitable war will conclude, and there will be peace…at least for the rest of the summer. There will be few rebellions and few more of surprise invasions but it’s nothing when compared to this big war about to be contested between these three. (Did I forgot to mention anyone?)


                   Thank you all for hanging around till the end. If you were interested in checking out my older post it was provided with the links here: Part I, Part II and Part III. As always, be there for the next one coming up on my blog (spoiler alert!) which was not the eventual Part V of the ongoing series. You will be in for a SURPRISE! See you all soon.

Legends: m stands for million; b for billion.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

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