We are now going to see more about the box office potential for few more of such franchise entries hitting the theatres this year, to note as we had already discussed in elaborate detail about a couple of summer kick-off movies in the previous post. I provided you the link of my previous post here. Now, I have 4 such franchise entries on my hand, already dissected and studied. Catch up with me folks, as we now foray into the realm of ‘weird‘ maths and ‘absurd‘ prophecies.
Well, as people continues to choose or prefer one thing over another, from the start of this summer and continues to do so probably till the end of it, yet this mid-summer movie season was also about having the proper stuffs that audience were once promised, enough to justify their eventual choice(s), especially for those who stuck to these ‘franchise‘ thing(s) for a long time. So, this mid-summer movie season was more about ‘Promises‘ than choice(s) itself.
- Let start this prediction thing with once fabled and a unique franchise, which then held the promise of ‘only-sky-is-the-limit’ for this thing, but now got stranded midway. Also it’s marquee star was once a major box office draw, now drenched in the lots of negative media attention, in addition to his string of very poor showings at the box office might be going to affect this fabled franchise’s fifth installment. It was actually ‘him‘ who single-handedly steered the ship almost on all occasions. Walt Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales, arrives in the cinema halls around the world on May 26, 2017 (today) features Johnny Deep alongside Javier Bardem, Orlando Bloom, Brendon Thwaites, Kaya Scodelario, Geoffrey Rush, Kevin McNally. Talking about the box office potential of this one, though not looking promising enough, yet not looking like the one which was in a deep trouble. As of now, it looks like this (presumably) final Pirate adventure will perform more closely to series’ original numbers than it’s penultimate chapter, without factoring the inflation. Since the summer weekend slots were lined up with tentpole-y franchise entries on weekly basis thus it was of prime importance to rope in as much audience as possible on the opening weekend itself, then worry about the rest of the factors. So, I am going to be very cautious on predicting this one. It will open around $80m+($65m FSS) during the long Memorial Day weekend but will be sort of frontloaded in nature, as it may looking to close out it’s NA business with around $200m final total. Overseas was totally unpredictable these days, but arriving at the reasonable figure rather than the exact one was not that hard though. I predict a box office performance in the range of $550m-$650m from overseas markets. My final say on this one was that it will gross somewhere between $750m-$850m globally (if everything goes according to the plan). Off the record, I personally guess that it will gross in the range of $750m-$775m and thus so reaching the $800m+ milestone was a very distant possibility.
- Up next, we presumably have our first ever blockbuster-level successful, female-centric superhero movie, courtesy of Warner Bro’s Wonder Woman if it delivers on it’s own promise. With much needed hype and social media attention, as well as the decades worth of comic book fan following behind it’s back, it was now shaping up to be an event film. Having said that, such event level credibility, was not even a guarantee for the success unless you either have a genuine/popular star and/or popular source material and/or being a part of popular movie franchise behind it provided it has reasonable budget attached to it. Wonder Woman will have the advantage of having all those. Ironically, she was under immense pressure that she needs to be so darn good than people usually expects it to be. Simply because of the fact that the ‘same people’ finally want their promises to be rewarded, since all the previous DCEU entries either failed or not wholly delivered on that very promise(s). Still I predict an optimistic $620m+ final global total for ‘her‘, more in the lines of recent superhero movies, such as Doctor Strange and Logan. It will open around $70m-$80m range and will finish with $220m+ from NA, with a very good final multiplier of 2.8x. Overseas, it will brings in around $400m, which will be stellar for any starter franchise (though it was still being part of DC Cinematic Universe). This superhero picture featuring Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman/Diana Prince, alongside Chris Pine, Connie Nielsen, Lucy Davis, Lisa Loven Kongsli, David Huston David Thewlis, Saïd Taghmaoui, Elena Anaya arrives in theatres on June 2, 2017.
- Hollywood recent obsession for Cinematic Universes was evident as we already bumped into at least four different cinematic universes entries so far. This one was yet another such entry we have here for this year, from Universal’s so called ‘Dark Universe’ (which was now official). It was also the fore mentioned universe’s launch vehicle, so a lot riding on it’s eventual success. Universal’s The Mummy will terrifies the theatres near you from June 9, 2017 which stars Tom Cruise, Russell Crowe, Sofia Boutella, Annabelle Wallis, Jake Johnson, Marwan Kenzari, Courtney B. Vance. It was very much a known thing that most Tom Cruise’s movies at least opens with an average around $60m and will smoothly rides to $150m+ total in NA alone. But we still have to see how much ‘him‘ being attached to some popular franchise entry might elevate it’s box office performance (when excluding MI franchise). Also coming in only a week after, Wonder Woman might hurt this thing to some extent. Still the demographic these two movies targeting were pretty much distinct. Overseas prospects were riding a lot on how deep the ‘awareness‘ had been spread, as it was crucial that people needs to be made aware of the idea that ‘The Mummy was a movie which stars Tom Cruise in the lead’ rather they end up seeing this one as ‘yet another Mummy movie coming to the theatres soon‘. Thus being the former plays to the movie’s advantage though it was not very clear how the notion of being ‘just another mummy movie’ will perform in theatres, if it even comes to that. Assuming that all those efforts which had been put in so far if quite managed to sell the former idea, then ‘The Mummy’ will soar higher and may even have a decent shot at finishing around $450m-$500m worldwide total. NA’s performance will be more in line with ‘average‘ Tom Cruise vehicle barring any miracle, for which I predict a $65m+ opening and will close out it business with over or under $160m total (through 2.6x multiplier.) Overseas, it will wrap around $260m-$300m or more, depending on it’s reception and final product’s appeal. So, I predict a $420m-$460m final global cume. Still it got plenty of encouraging factors alongside so that it can climb even further and higher.
- Coming to the final one for this post, we have here was a ‘sort of revived’ franchise entry from the animation giant ‘Pixar‘. Walt Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 races into the theatres coming June 16, 2017 which features the voice cast of Owen Wilson, Larry The Cable Guy, Bonnie Hunt, Cheech Marin, Michael Wallis, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Paul Dooley. Let roll over this thing quickly and get done with this post. With a incredibly buzzy teasers and trailers, Walt Disney did great with in doing what they were so good at. Creating Buzz. Providing more Promises. Drawing Attention. Also this being a kid-friendly offering will be an added advantage since many of this summer’s tentpole movies mostly been targeted at either teens or adults or sometimes both. It got everything going right so far but the historical box office performance of this decade old franchise’s entry were not that much big and impactful. They falls in the range between decent enough to good enough performances, also they (both) had been mixed-to-poor critical reception . We can only see how it will perform, only when it performs. For now, allow me do my own thing. Here, I predict a $520m-580m final total for this movie which target kids and their accompanying parents. With $180m coming from NA, provided it opens with around $65m+ and with another $340m-$400m coming from the markets around the world.
That’s it. I will be back with more updates with Part IV post, meantime I was planning on doing a spin-off post if I got any time for that, with one ‘Family’ trip around the corner. Thank you so much for your support. If you still not visited my previous posts yet, then feel free to go through those if you wish, which had been provided through the links below. Hoping to see you all once again, soon.
Legends: m stands for million; NA for North America.
Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.