Hi there. Hello again. Good to be back. Here and again, we are going to have some fun with numbers, try to anticipate the ‘next big thing’, solve few ‘mystery boxes’ all the while talking something close enough to ‘rubbish‘. As promised earlier, I am going to shell out some predictions for few movies about how good it will perform in theatres. We have 4 such movies on the table, for us to dissect. So if you got any other plans or having any second thoughts about doing something else or might still been wondering how you ended up here, then don’t worry. You and I, are going to have a very long conversation. That’s it.
Choice. That’s what we are going to talk about. Here we are looking at some incredible as well as frustrating amount of very popular movies of all sorts making it to the big screen, on weekly basis. On some occasions even two or three at once. So people had to chose one thing over another. That’s what this whole post was all about. Which one would people eventually going to pick in the favour of another? Which one will have the backing of its ‘own’ people, meaning ‘fans’, to ride the wave on its own? Which one was going to suffer the most, otherwise could/might have been the ‘big thing’ sans the competition? Let dig up for some clues or hopefully if we can, for some answers.
- We start with something ‘animated’. Sony’s Smurfs: The Lost Village was arriving at theatres on April, 7 which was only a week after the unexpected break out success of DreamWorks/Fox’s ‘The Boss Baby’. It may hurt this ‘second tier’ animation series entry, to some extent. We will see. But talking about the potential of this ‘threequel’, I won’t be surprised if it fails to deliver at same level as its predecessor. To be honest, it may never be able to reach the heights of the original The Smurfs reached way back in 2011. So keeping my expectation as low as it needs to be, then I am calling the shots on this one to make over/under $300m globally. That’s not a ‘curse‘ or something else. It was a partial truth as well as a partial answer to one of those questions. With an opening coming in the range of $18-20m, with optimistic 3.4x multiplier it will collect around $60m-$70m in NA. In overseas where it already began its roll out last week, it will pull something around $210m-$230m. But if people in NA had other ideas, then it’s opening will drops to low to mid-teens and the final gross even below $50m (Hope, it was not going to be the case here). If something like that happens, well unfortunately it may have to rely heavily on its overseas audience a bit more to save it from drowning any further. Smurfs: The Lost Village features the voice cast of Demi Lovato, Joe Manganiello, Rainn Wilson, Jack McBrayer, Danny Pudi, Julia Roberts among others.
- If Smurfs 3 will presumably suffer a lot because of the crowded marketplace, then this thing we got here has the potential to ‘strive‘ even on the cruelest and toughest of movie-going landscape. Ironically, this one looks likely to face comparably softer competition than the ‘rest of those which might get into some trouble because of the crowd’. As a result here we have one rare combination of ‘potential biggie’ as well as a ‘mystery box’. I presents to you, Universal’s The Fate of The Furious. It’s coming to theatres on April, 14 which boast a long list of cast that include names such as Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Jason Statham, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel with Kurt Russell, Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren. As you very well knew that the previous entry, Universal’s Furious 7 blew away all those box office prediction as it went on to became one of the biggest movie ever worldwide. Also it still remains Hollywood’s biggest ever export to China. At box office, it collected an incredible $1.516b worldwide. But F8 was going to perform unlike F7, which partly rode on the huge wave of interest of seeing late Paul Walker, one of Fast & Furious series’ main stay in action alongside his on screen ‘Furious’ family, for one last time. Still the trailers for F8 were extremely popular, which shows that the interest was there. Indeed, huge. That’s why I called it a biggie in the meantime a mystery. We are going to do a three-way split predictions here, thanks to the series’ surge in popularity and tremendous success in China. First up NA. It may perform well below the previous entry F7 baring any fluke. I see an opening around $120m. I also presume that it may play more or less exclusively to the fans and will close out with a decent-but-not-great 2.2x final multiplier, for the final gross around $240m-$250m. Well for China, if you asked me a couple of years ago, I should have guessed a $450m final total with even a slight possibility for $500m. But the recent slip-up in movie-going business there can’t get this one there. For reasons unknown for the past year or so, Hollywood imports began burning fast in China, so to some extent opening huge was the key. It may open in the range of $150m-$160m, as it was evident from the recent trend that it may close out with 2x multiplier, for still huge $300-$320m total in china. If these prediction holds, then it will even have a shot at $600m total coming exclusively from these two markets alone. From the rest of the world it will be bit ridiculous to expect this one to earn another $500m easily, but it may or may not happen. For now, I am predicting only $425m-$450m total from the rest of the world. Yes, I am calling this one as a potential $1billion grosser, if it performs closer to the higher end of my predictions. There was many chances it will perform bigger than I had expected. Globally, I feel like F8 will make anywhere around in the range of $970m-$1.02b.
- As we are now entering Summer movie season, you know obviously well who was going to kick start the season this year. Yep, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 2 will launch this year’s summer season when it arrives in theatres on May, 5. This sequel to the crowd-pleasing original which features the cast of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel(voice), Bradley Cooper(voice), Michael Rooker, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff with Sylvester Stallone and Kurt Russell and also James Gunn returning as Director. To note, almost more than half of the movie going populace felt it in their bones that this one too have that unique charm, very much like the original, once after seeing the trailers and stuffs. There was no doubt, this one was going to be big. Only question was, ‘how big?’ Let start with NA‘s prediction. I presume people might have decided to stay away from the bunch of other movies, because I had this feeling, they might have already picked this one as their prime choice. Keeping that in mind, it will have big chance at clearing $450m domestic total, if it won’t then will have very little to no trouble in topping $400m. It will open around $165m (or way above that) and will leg it out to $465m with pretty good 2.8x multiplier if it was as good as the original. Overseas prospects was very unpredictable to predict with so many tentpole movies launching almost every week. But still GOTG Vol. 2 will have no trouble in collecting somewhere around $525m-$550m overseas. If people got what they came to expect from this and/or if the word of mouth was good, much like the original, then it can fly even higher than I had predicted here. Déjà vu alert! My final say on this one was that it will take around $980m-$1.02b globally from box office receipts. To be honest this one right here, have more chances to reach that fancy $1 billion mark than F8 have though my numbers seems to encourage only the latter. (Obviously!)
- Just one more before we wrap up. Arriving on May, 19 this summer Fox’s Alien: Covenant will have a chance to survive and thrive in one of most crowded summer ever, only if Guardians Vol. 2 wouldn’t quite managed to set the box office on fire. But that’s definitely not gonna happen. In the contrary, Alien: Covenant might end up being something that tried too hard to get enough attention or something actually good enough to which people didn’t paid enough attention to. Also to state the most obvious fact here and I am really very sorry for saying this that it was definitely not some $1b or may be even a $700m box office pay cheque and it should not be ashamed of that. Because that’s how difficult for the movie makers now-a-days to thread one mega-franchise out of something that seem to have started off things in a very encouraging note. If you take a look at Fox’s Prometheus numbers*, you can see for yourself that it had all the signs to become a next big blockbuster franchise. In some different year or in the exact same month belonging to an alien planet, even if it was only half good as what people came to expect but still it will easily make $500m give or take. But in reality, even a very good Alien: Covenant might struggle to get there or may not even possibly get there by any chance (Apologies, again). Well even if it manages to perform more in line with Prometheus, it still deserves a lot of credit. I am guessing it will make around $120m from NA, courtesy of $45m opening with 2.75x multiplier. For overseas, it will be around not-so-great but still very optimistic $260m. It may close out with over $380m but may finish slightly above $400m mark, depending on few over-performances of sort, coming from some overseas markets. This Ridley Scott directed space-adventure/horror stars Michael Fassbender, Katherine Waterson, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir among others.
Originally, my choice was to do the post containing predictions for at least eight movies. Since, I didn’t want to drain you of all your energy and also with the intention of saving some of mine’s, though with numbers for those next ‘four’ already in hand I chose to save those for the very next one. If you haven’t came across my Part I, here it was. Hope you got what you came far. But for those who were feeling betrayed and actually came here expecting more, then do feel free to check back again for the Part III post arriving soon. The next ‘four’ on my list also includes Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales and The Mummy. A tease of things to come.
Legends: m stands for million; b for billion; NA for North America.
Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.