Predicting Box Office Success of Ongoing, Returning, Budding Movie Franchises For Year 2016 – PART 2.

Note: The article was based solely on my own speculations and guess work, so it may or may not turn out to be accurate or true, in future. Have fun and patience reading this.

Hey, everyone. It been over a month and a half since I last posted. Sorry for the delay. I think only few, indeed very few people paid attention to my Part I post, which encouraged me more to continue my work, with part II and an inevitable part III of my predictions. I had already finished my calculations and (mostly) guesswork for this part II as well as upcoming part III, which will be posted back to back, within a space of week or two. I promise, no such delays this time around. So, here we go!!

Well, in the last post, we discussed the box office fate of 10 such franchise entries, in the order of their domestic release dates. Now we are going to take 11 such potential movies. While in most cases, I had no or very little idea on how high those movie might end up in terms of box office grosses. So please don’t take anything on personal level, if in case I had predicted an ill fate or else underestimated the success for any of your favourite movie franchise(s). Have fun reading.

  1. First up, we have Summit Entertainment’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opens June 3rd, 2016 (starring Megan Fox, Stephen Amell, Will Arnett). With Alice: TTLG and X-Men: Apocalypse, still only a week old in theatres, this may affect its business significantly. Though the last entry TMNT, dethroned the surprise blockbuster hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, way back in 2014 when it opened with huge $65m+ opening weekend. Such a big numbers on the opening weekend was highly unlikely, because it was also due to the fact that people turned out for TMNT, only to see Turtles’ return to the big screen after lying dormant for nearly a decade. Expect a softer opening in $45m-$50m range. With similar (2.9x) multiplier like the previous entry, it will end up grossing as high as $150m. Though with crowded market place, it may gross even lesser, say 2.7x multiplier was looking more realistic. So, it will gross $140m in US. As usual, it will play well in overseas compared to domestic run, leading me to believe that it will collect something close to $320m overseas. It will likely wrap up with an impressive total of over/under $460m worldwide.

  2. Next, we are seeing Universal’s Warcraft which opens on June 10, 2016. Here, we have another potential franchise starter but this one have arsenal of characters which were looking far more interesting and exciting, than previously discussed the Angry Birds Movie (which also itself have some very funny and many colourful characters too). Though both are video-game adaptations, the idea of Warcraft looks more appealing. Though both have the immense advantage of having a very huge fan base, outside of that I personally feels, Warcraft was looking more like a crowd puller. Whereas, Angry Birds Movie was just a crowd pleaser (which is not an insult). The latter tag may help the movie to hold well in the consecutive weekends, but former was needed to open bigger. If movie was good as everyone expected, then it will indeed do well in the weekends followed by the big opening, as well. Considering all these, I am predicting a $65m opening. I am being optimistic the movie was going to be good, so with 3.5x multiplier it will close out the domestic run with over/under $210m. Overseas it will be playing in theatres for two weeks, in many key foriegn markets, before entering the domestic circuit. So it’s box office fate will be pretty much sealed even before it begin its domestic run. We may be looking at $270m-$300m range thus gives the worldwide total of around $500m. If it does exactly that, then it is good news for the movies based on some popular video-game(s) coming later this year.

  3. It comes in at the time frame and in the situation, as similar as its predecessor, which entered the movie market (alongside After Earth) when Furious 6, Hangover III and Epic still playing in their sophomore weekend. Also, Iron Man 3 and the Star Trek sequel were still performing strongly as well, in its 5th and 3rd frame. Crowded, then. This year, the sequel to the moderate BO hit, caper-heist thriller Now You See Me, will be opening along side previously seen much bigger, highly ambitious Epic Fantasy film, Warcraft. It still had to wrestle with TMNT2 in its weekend two, as well as with ATLG and XM: Apocalypse. Crowded, again. The original movie ended with the promise of still more exciting things to come, so I am expecting an opening around $25-35m(depending on how well the Warcraft movie been received). So with the multiplier of 2.8x, it will finish its domestic run with $80m-$100m total. Overseas will do even better with $275m finish more likely, thus look for the final worldwide total in the range of $350-$375m. Lionsgate/Summit’s Now You See Me 2 opens on June 10, 2016, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Lizzy Caplan with Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Mark Ruffalo and Daniel Radcliffe.

  4. We are going to look at one returning franchise’s entry, which was more akin to something that will be looking to tap the nostalgia of moviegoers, rather than something that being seen as inevitable sequel. Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory (featuring Ellen DeGeneres, Albert Brooks, Ty Burrell opens June 17, 2016.) lands in the theatres in the middle of summer this year, will be targeting the family audiences. Definitely, it would be CA: Civil War which will kick start the summer with a bang, well it looks like Finding Dory might be the movie which keeps this summer going, I guess. It was movie more about keeping up with the good work as well as goodwill earned by the original and not about converting general audience into fans to build themselves a new one or expanding the existing one. The real challenge lies in the fact that the original often considered as ‘one of the greatest animated movie ever made’, so even a slight drop in quality and execution may significantly damage the movie business. Still, even if the movie was not as good as original (Finding Nemo) and barely managed to meet its expectations, it will still earn over $750m worldwide. So my conclusion was, if movie was very good but not great then it will likely pull around S80m opening in US. With good but not great 3.8x multiplier(advantage being family audience flocking with their kids), it will likely gross  $310m in US. With overseas it will bring around little over $500m if it plays well in key markets such as UK, France, Germany, Australia, Japan, Italy and China. If everything goes it way, then it will even have chance to steal billion-dollar figure. So my prediction was in the range of $310m US gross,  with $500m-$520m overseas, for $810m+ worldwide total.

  5. Nostalgia Strikes Again. The movie in our hand right now was just going to do that. It’s original, Independence Day, was considered as one of the greatest sci-fi movie of all time as well as the biggest movie ever in terms of box office way back in 1996 (also one of my personal favourite). Until an year ago (2015), it was placed among top 50 highest grossing movies of all time in term of box office receipts but only got pushed out of Top 50 by barrage of tent-pole movies which recently made it to theatres in 2015. However, the real question was whether it’s sequel, Universal’s Independence Day: Resurgence, in today’s dollar even with the higher ticket prices, massively expanded foreign markets and IMAX screenings on it’s side, will be able to top the original’s still impressive global gross of $817m ($307m in US). Audiences will flock to see it, no matter, even if this movie was not that good as original. The exclusion of Will Smith might be one of the prime factor, for the movie’s diminishing returns. But my guess was it may only affect it’s play in US (and in some key markets where he was so popular elsewhere) but overseas was different picture this time around and $400m was as low as it can get. My guess (still not a solid guess, I guess), was this one to gross well above $650m+ worldwide, with $200m+ in US courtesy of $60m opening and  around $450m from rest of the world.

  6. Summer also see the return/revival/reboot of sorts which will bring back one of the iconic character to screen, Tarzan. Of course, WB’s Legend of Tarzan, it is. Well I am going to make this one short, since I got zero idea about how well this movie will do when it opens on July 1, 2016. But this movie had few positives if you ask me. With David Yates behind this one, along with some good array of cast which includes Alexander Skarsgard, Samuel L. Jackson, Margot Robbie and Christopher Waltz, it looks promising. As well as trailer was okay, but should have been great. But trailer doesn’t suggest or define the quality of the movie in whole, yet it was the key to get audiences’ interest. Having said all those, I am expecting this one to pull something close to $120m-$135m in US with opening around $40m-$45m range. In overseas, it will do just better by grossing over/under $250m. Projected worldwide total will be $375m or above.

  7. Sony/Columbia’s Ghostbusters starring an ensemble cast of Melissa McCarthy, Kristen Wiig, Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones opens in theatres on July 15, 2016. It was officially a reboot, which features an all-out female cast as opposed to its original. It was not just about targeting females audiences, but to make this reboot outright unique. It was not just for the change, better even if not seen as a stand-in for the cause ‘Hollywood for feminism’. That’s what actually diminish the potential for this kinda movies. The very notion of ‘female-centric’ will only make the matter worse, at least in my opinion, as people will only see this as ‘triumph of female power’ as opposed to the good content, great direction and/or interesting characters if this movie become a breakout success. If such movie fails, the blame will be and only be imposed on taking ‘female-centric’ approach rather than bad content, terrible direction and/or uninspiring characters. Hollywood, and the whole world along with it, had long been doing this mistake. Personally, I feels that if this world needs to  be a  better place, then  women’s  representation, contribution and participation had to be either equal or preferably  a notch above men, if that really had to happen. That’s for another conversation. But always see movie as a movie, a person as a person. People buy tickets mostly to have fun, sometimes to get inspired from the content it provides, often relates to the characters it boasts. Its not Hollywood’s to decide that female-centric movies as less fun and/or less successful just because of that being female-centric. Also audience needs to start seeing this one as another supernatural comedy film which feature some exciting characters than seeing this one as female-centric movie surrounding supernatural subject with a comedic touch. So if everybody agree with what I just finished telling, then it will bring over $750m worldwide with ease. That’s not the case here, world is changing and that change was in progress. As of today, realistically speaking, it was projected to gross around $200m in US (opening $70m range), another $200m overseas for the total of  over $400m. Forgive me, for the outburst. This’s what a blog was all about, right. Speaking our mind, as it is. Let’s get to the next one quickly and shortly.

  8. At the close of the summer this year, arrives fifth installment of this very popular animated franchise, Fox’s Ice Age: Collision Course, which opens domestically on July 22, 2016. While the history points in every direction, that this one was going to be big nevertheless, but the box office potential may be hampered a bit, by the highly anticipated installment of another long running franchise which opens alongside this one. As all four previous installments, earned $160m or above in US alone, it was sensible to put the projection at the same range. Well overseas was different picture, as I always say. Its previous movies grossed $200m+, $450m+, $690m+ and $710m+ respectively overseas, in chronological order. So you might got the idea of what I am going to do with this one. It was safe to assume that it will gross at least $650m overseas or may show a slight growth. So, keeping in mind the competition it had to face, I predict for this one to bring around $150m in US with opening of $50m-$55m range, along with $550m-$600m overseas for massive worldwide total of $700m-$750m range.

  9. One long running franchise mentioned above was none other than, Star Trek. It continue its intergalactic journey, with the third entry of its alternate reality series, with Paramount’s Star Trek Beyond starring Chris Pine, Simon Pegg, Idris Elba, Zoe Saldana and Zachary Quinto. Opening in theatres in US and in many major movie markets on July 22, this one was looking to gain more ground this time and also the studio behind was betting (also hoping) on this one to make, the ‘Star Trek’ their future space-adventure franchise tentpole. So with high hopes and rekindled interest (thanks to those previous two entries by JJ Abrams) it will be looking to pull something in the range of $230m+ in US. I put the opening projection for this one at $75m range. With me hoping it will do even better overseas than its predecessors, I am putting my guess (and faith) on this one to gross $300m-$325m for final worldwide total of $550m or above.

  10. We now had came down to the final two. It may be the continuation of an ongoing franchise but it marks the return of the character it was built upon, Jason Bourne. Yes, Bourne franchise returns with Universal’s Jason Bourne, on July 29th this year. Fingers Crossed. I am not been able to say how much big it will be or how much it will improve in quality compared to last one. But interest for this movie was immense as it was already been hailed as ‘one of the most anticipated’. It will likely  gross around $220m in US and another $280m+ in overseas. It may go higher if people around the globe had similar interest and hype on Bourne franchise, as US audiences have. Worldwide total gross will be little over $500m.

  11. Talking about anticipation,  well then Jason Bourne comes nowhere near this one in terms of anticipation. It was already skyrocketing. I was obviously been taking about DCEU’s next/third installment, WB/DC’s Suicide Squad which boast an ensemble cast includes Margot Robbie, Will Smith, Jared Leto, Jai Courtney, Cara Delevingne and Viola Davis to name a few arrives in theatres on August 5, 2016. Directed by David Ayer, it was a story about a group/team of Supervillains come together to execute some dangerous black ops missions for a Government’s secret agency. See, how that sounds. It sounds awesome and cool. Unique, if you ask me. So I have to put my anticipation as well as excitement levels for this one aside, to predict something close to reality. Otherwise, I might start to sound outright ridiculous or insane. Speaking of which, it will gross around $300m-$320m in US, with the opening looking at the range of $95m-$110m. Overseas, it might gross more in line with US. But with Joker character hype featured in and Will smith addition to the star power may push the total a little higher. We are looking at foreign gross of over/under $350m. Final global total will be around $650m-S670m range.

Thanks for your time. Apologise if I took so much of your time. But that’s what blog post was all about. Please do come back to check out Part III. If in case you missed Part I, it’s  right here.

Sources: Wikipedia, Box Office Mojo.

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